MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Friday (5/17)
Today's MLB No Run First Inning (NRFI) picks both have a similar script - I'm backing young talent combined with experienced pitchers who are due for some positive regression. Relying on small sample sizes and prior performances at lower levels is always a risky proposition, but I'm relying on two top prospects Paul Skenes and Christian Scott to live up to their billing and have clean first innings today.
They're both facing off against experienced pitchers who have had great success in the past but have gotten off to rocky starts this season in Kyle Hendricks and Jesus Luzardo. However, I found reason to believe that these guys should bounce back from those struggles down the stretch. Let’s jump into our top two MLB NRFI picks for Friday’s slate of baseball games.
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Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Record This Season: 16-10 (+1.62 Units)
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Hendricks vs. Paul Skenes
There's no hiding it, Kyle Hendricks has been downright awful this year, currently holding a double-digit ERA with a WHIP of 1.92. That seems like a pretty bad selection for a pitcher I'm relying on to have a clean first inning, but after digging into some of his underlying metrics I found Hendricks has been unlucky and prime for some much-needed positive regression. Hendricks has never been a hard thrower who racks up strikeouts, so those numbers are pretty negligible in my opinion, but his hard-hit metrics have been really good.
Hendricks ranks in the 87th percentile in both hard-hit% and average exit velocity, with a ground ball rate that ranks among the top 1/3 of pitchers in baseball. His chase rate has also been surprisingly above average, ranking in the 74th percentile in that category. He's not getting hit hard, he's consistently keeping the ball out of the air and he's making batters chase on pitches outside of the strike zone - that does not add up to a 10+ ERA to me. He'll be up against a pretty unimposing Pirates lineup this afternoon that ranks 25th or worse in AVG, OBP, OPS and SLG.
Rookie sensation Paul Skenes makes his second career start this afternoon, interestingly enough against the same club he debuted against. Skenes was dominant against the Cubs in the early going of that game, throwing three scoreless innings before surrendering his first ER and racking up seven total strikeouts over just four innings. The Cubs hitters did get to him as they progressed through the batting order a second time, but he blew them away the first time around.
The familiarity of this matchup between Skenes and the Cubs could be argued for success in either direction, but I like the fact that Skenes got a feel for exactly what did and did not work against these Cubs hitters. He was the No. 1 overall pick in the draft for a reason, and the Pirates felt comfortable enough in his progression to call him up this early. I'll back Skenes to have another clean first inning in this matinee. Lastly, the wind figures to be blowing in slightly at Wrigley Field today, which is a big factor in Cubs home games and should benefit both pitchers.
Bet: MLB NRFI (-135 @ DraftKings, Bet365)
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
Starting Pitchers: Christian Scott vs. Jesus Luzardo
The last time I wrote up an NRFI play involving Jesus Luzardo he was scratched from his start, so let's try this again. Luzardo is a hard-throwing young lefty for a Marlins team devoid of any type of talent or excitement in their current state. Luzardo has some inflated numbers compared to his previous two seasons, but much like Hendricks, there is reason to believe in a bounce back from his early season struggles.
For starters, his xERA is over 1.50 runs lower than his actual ERA, and his "stuff" still seems to be there. His fastball still grades out well above league average in terms of velocity. His K% sits in the 72nd percentile with a whiff% that falls just shy of the 90th percentile. His numbers are also skewed from two back-to-back rough outings against two of the best offenses in the MLB in the Yankees and Braves. The Mets are certainly not on the same level as those teams offensively, ranking in the bottom half of the league in AVG, OPB, OPS, SLG and HR, so I like Luzardo to have a successful start against them at home this evening.
Another Rookie, right-hander Christian Scott, will make his third career start for the Mets tonight. He is currently ranked as the No. 5 prospect in their organization. Though Scott has not recorded a win yet, his 2.84 ERA and 1.11 WHIP are both really solid in a limited sample size, especially when you consider one of his two starts has come against the Braves.
His sample size is not large enough to qualify for rankings yet, but both his swing-and-miss stuff and hard-hit metrics would rank among the top 25% of pitchers in the game if they did. He gets to face the abysmal Marlins offense tonight, who rank 25th or worse in nearly every offensive statistical category. Those numbers include the contributions of Luis Arraez, who is no longer a member of the team. I like for Scott to keep rolling tonight and I think Luzardo begins to reassert himself where he belongs as one of the better arms in the National League.
Bet: MLB NRFI (-125 @ FanDuel, Caesars, Bet365)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: