MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Mariners vs. Rangers (Monday)
Today’s MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks column features just one game, as a lot of bottom-of-the-rotation arms are making starts. With just one bet on the board, I'll be playing it to win one unit.
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers: Logan Gilbert vs. Jacob deGrom
Jacob deGrom and Logan Gilbert face off as two of the best right-handed starting pitchers in the game. Despite disappointing starts to the season for both, their underlying metrics suggest they've been much more effective than their small sample size statistics suggest.
Both have the talent and pedigree to be among the best pitchers in baseball on a nightly basis, and I'm positive that their season-long numbers will be reflective of that as the sample size increases. The fact that they both got knocked around a bit seems to be suppressing this price as well, as I was expecting something closer to the -150 range.
I love playing unders and the NRFI at Globe Life Field as well, which grades out as a bottom-10 ballpark in home run rate and second-worst in overall offensive ballpark factors since 2024. Both aces will do their thing on Monday night, bouncing back to record a clean first inning.
Logan Gilbert looks to bounce back after two rough starts to begin his 2026 campaign. Although he has allowed eight runs through just 10.2 innings, his underlying metrics suggest a rosier picture. His xERA is a full four runs lower than his actual ERA, grading out in the 79th percentile, and his xBA of 0.187 puts him in the 75th percentile.
Gilbert’s whiff rate and strikeout rate are among the top 30th percentile, and although he's walking batters at a slightly higher rate than previous seasons, his 6.8% walk rate is still well above league average. The run value on his fastball and offspeed pitches also both grade out above the 70th percentile.
Simply put, Gilbert has been on the receiving end of some poor luck that will inevitably even out over the course of the season. The Rangers’ lineup he'll be up against was also one of the worst in baseball in 2025, ranking in the bottom five in batting average, slugging rate, on-base percentage (OBP) and OPS. While I don't think they're necessarily that bad, I also don't think they're quite as good as the start they've gotten off to this season.
Opposing Gilbert on the mound will be deGrom, who is also looking to improve on his first start of the season, where he allowed three runs over 4.2 innings. Similar to Gilbert, his xERA of 2.92 is nearly three runs lower than his current ERA, ranking in the top third of all pitchers.
The analytics suggest deGrom was just as good as his normal self, ranking in the top 30th percentile in chase rate and whiff rate, while sitting in the top 20th percentile in strikeout rate and walk rate. He will be facing a Mariners lineup that has really struggled out of the gate, ranking in the bottom five of average, slugging rate and OPS, and in the bottom 10 in OBP.
Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh and Josh Naylor are off to very slow starts, which is especially critical for this NRFI pick. Both Gilbert and deGrom will get back on track on Monday, and I like them both to put up zeros in the opening frame.
Play: NRFI (-128)