MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (3/30)
Baseball season is back, and with it comes one of the most fun wagers that you can place across any sport - NRFI. For those who are unfamiliar, the NRFI bet is very simple, you're wagering that there will not be a run scored in the first inning of that game. Just a note that for some books this may be a little bit more difficult to find, as it will be represented as an O/U 0.5 runs in the 1st inning. NRFIs are great because they pack all the excitement of a normal wager into the 20-ish minute timespan of the 1st inning, offering quick payouts and fun sweats. The obvious contributing factors to these bets are the starting pitchers and the offensive options at the top of each respective lineup, but other important considerations include weather, offensive ballpark factors, batting/pitching splits, pitching luck, and other underlying factors such as walk rate, ground ball rate, and pitching run value that tell a much better story than an ERA does. These bets are typically a little bit juiced, ranging from roughly -110 to -150, and can obviously be lost on any swing of the bat, so I don't advise going crazy on these and you can assume these are half-unit plays for me unless stated otherwise. I'll try to offer up a couple of picks in my weekly articles, but sometimes there may only be one game that really catches my interest. With that being said, let's kick things off with my favorite NRFIs on this Monday's slate of games!
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(All bets are half a unit unless otherwise stated)
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees
Veteran RHP Luis Castillo will get the start as the 5th man in a loaded Mariners pitching rotation, and although he isn't quite the same caliber of pitcher that he was as an ace for a majority of his career, he's certainly still very effective. Castillo posted a 3.54 ERA in 2025 with an xERA just north of 4.00, and the pitching run value on his fastball still graded out in the 90th percentile. His walk rate of 6.2% also finished in the 82nd percentile, which is critical against this Yankees lineup which drew more walks than any team in baseball by a wide margin in 2025. Castillo posted a 2.60 home ERA compared to a 4.71 road ERA in 2025 and was more effective against right-handed hitters, which is important considering he could see both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in the first inning tonight. The Yankees as a team were also slightly worse offensively against RHP in 2025, which plays right into Castillo's splits.
Ryan Weathers will take the opposing mound, making his debut in the pinstripes after being acquired by the Yankees this offseason. Weathers is coming off of an injury-shortened 2025 season, but posted his best career numbers in 2024. In that season, he posted a career-best 3.63 ERA, which likely had a lot to do with the fact that he kept the ball on the ground with a GB% of 47.6% that graded out in the 76th percentile. His walk rate mirrored that of Castillo's at just 6.5%, and his offspeed run value was among the best in the majors in the 86th percentile. He's also made major improvements to his fastball since then, taking a pitch that sat around 95 mph and bumping it all the way up to 99 mph this Spring. The Mariners were also slightly less productive against LHP last season, and Weathers' road ERA in his last full season was a mind-blowing 4.11 points lower than his home ERA. Add in the fact that Seattle's T-Mobile park graded out 20th in terms of HR factor and dead-last in terms of overall offensive park factors in 2025, and I like the NRFI in this game that's likely going to have a little bit of added value given the individual offensive talent at the top of each of these lineups.
Pick: NRFI (-115 at DraftKings)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Nick Martinez will make his debut for the Rays tonight as someone that I think is a sneaky really good acquisition for a franchise that consistently makes more with less. Martinez comes over after four consecutive seasons with an xERA under 4.04, spending his previous two seasons with the Reds in one of the least pitcher-friendly ballparks in the MLB. While Martinez certainly doesn't throw the hardest or generate a ton of whiffs, he avoids hard contact with the best of them with a barrel rate in the 74th percentile, an average exit velocity in the 75th percentile, and a hard-hit % in the 90th percentile. He also doesn't allow free baserunners, with a walk rate just north of 6% that grades out in the 84th percentile. Martinez was a more effective pitcher on the road than he was at home in 2025 and he'll also have a slight splits advantage, as the Brewers offense was less productive against RHP last season.
Kyle Harrison will make his debut for the Brewers tonight after bouncing from the Giants to the Red Sox during his 3rd season in the Majors. While none of Harrison's metrics necessarily pop off the page, he was around league average in terms of whiff %, K %, walk rate, and ground ball rate in his last full season of work in 2024. I also think that he's due for some positive regression in the Brewers organization, as Milwaukee has ranked top-12 in both ERA and WHIP every season since 2020, posting top-5 marks multiple times and leading the league in some instances. He'll be up against a Rays lineup which was pretty middling in most offensive categories in 2025 that did a really poor job of drawing walks, ranking bottom-5 in that category last season. Add in the fact that American Family Field graded out 22nd in terms of overall offensive park factors in 2025, and I think this makes for a great NRFI spot for two underrated pitchers on Monday evening.
Pick: NRFI (-115 at Caesars)