MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (3/31)
Major League Baseball (MLB) is treating fans and bettors to a day full of action today. The pitching leaves something to be desired. However, two games have appealing No Run First Inning (NRFI) options, starting with one in the afternoon.
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Innings (NRFI) Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Philadelphia Phillies (-245) vs. Colorado Rockies (+200) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110)
Starting Pitchers: Cristopher Sanchez vs. German Marquez
Cristopher Sanchez broke out as a starter in 2023 but validated his breakout over 31 starts and 181.2 innings in 2024. According to FanGraphs, Sanchez had a 3.32 ERA, 3.56 xERA, 3.19 xFIP, 3.58 SIERA, 1.24 WHIP, 20.3 K% and 57.4 GB% last season. He can miss bats or get himself out of jams with a well-timed grounder.
Moreover, Sanchez was at his best at home (2.21 ERA and 2.75 xFIP), and tough as nails his first time through the order. Sanchez had a 2.70 ERA and 3.24 xFIP, and he held hitters to a .298 wOBA his first time through the order last season. In addition, per Baseball Reference, Sanchez had a 2.61 ERA in the first inning last year.
Sanchez has a favorable matchup this afternoon. Colorado’s projected top-five hitters have had an 85 wRC+ or worse against lefties since 2023 or debuting in the Majors. They’ve also had a 97 wRC+ or worse on the road. Sanchez has the easier side of contributing to a scoreless first inning.
German Marquez has pitched only five games — all starts — in the previous two seasons. Fortunately, through his injuries, he’s retained his elite velocity. Marquez has pitched well on the road and fared well in his first trip through order in his career.
Even if Marquez isn’t the same pitcher as before his injuries, he can hold Philadelphia’s good but not elite top-of-the-order scoreless for an inning. Three of the Phillies’ top-five projected hitters have had a 111 wRC+ or lower against righties since 2023.
Finally, the NRFI bet is a wisdom of the crowd pick. While an NRFI is priced at -111 at FanDuel and a YRFI is -115, it’s juiced to the NRFI at Caesars Sportsbook (-125) and DraftKings Sportsbook (-130).
Bet: NRFI (-111)
Tampa Bay Rays (-172) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+144) | O/U 8.5 (-104/-118)
Starting Pitchers: Drew Rasmussen vs. Carmen Mlodzinski
Drew Rasmussen is an outstanding pitcher who comes out of the gates hot. Last year, he had a 3.86 ERA, 3.18 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, 0.0 BB%, and 22.2 K% in his first time through the order in an admittedly small sample of 27 batters faced. In the larger sample of 440 batters faced the first time through the order as a starting pitcher in his career, he’s had a 1.98 ERA, 3.06 xFIP, 0.91 WHIP, 4.8 BB% and 25.7 K%.
The righty has also excelled in the first inning. In 50 games pitching in the first inning in his career, Rasmussen has had a 2.52 ERA and held hitters to a .570 OPS.
Rasmussen doesn’t have an imposing matchup tonight. Two of Pittsburgh’s projected top five hitters have had a 99 wRC+ against righties since 2023, and the others have had 121, 118, and 109 wRC+. The Pirates don’t have a high-octane top of the order.
Carmen Mlodzinski has spent most of the two previous seasons relieving but started four games last season. The starts were essentially opener appearances. Nevertheless, Mlodzinski spun a 1.42 ERA and held 26 batters to a .238 wOBA his first time through the order as a starter last year. He also allowed only three hits and zero walks while holding opponents scoreless in his four starts.
Mlodzinski doesn’t have a cupcake top of the order to face tonight. Still, two of Tampa Bay’s top-five projected hitters have had a 101 and 97 wRC+ against righties since 2023. Yandy Diaz (127 wRC+) and Brandon Lowe (124 wRC+) are the Rays’ only two hitters in the top five with a wRC+ above 120 against righties since 2023. So, it’s not the worst first-inning assignment for Mlodzinski. As a result, betting an NRFI at a not-too-chalky, relatively speaking, line is appealing.
Bet: NRFI (-125)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.