MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (4/13)
I've got two MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks for Monday’s slate of games, each of which is contingent upon throwing strikes. All four starting pitchers across both matchups have proven to be extremely productive when staying in the strike zone, which their career-long numbers are indicative of.
Add on the fact that we have some overperforming offenses in some pitcher-friendly parks, and I love these two plays. Let's avoid the free passes and cash these two MLB NRFI picks.
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers: Cade Cavalli vs. Paul Skenes
It's tough to have a better anchor leg for the top half of a scoreless first inning than Paul Skenes, who's as likely to go three up and three down as anyone in baseball. While Skenes is currently sitting at a bloated 5.25 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP, a lot of that inflation can be attributed to some pretty brutal outfield play by Oneil Cruz in the opener, which led to five earned runs in a first inning that Skenes didn't even finish.
Skenes has predictably shrugged that performance off, though, recording wins in each of his last two starts where he went five or more innings and allowed just one earned run in each. While his whiff and strikeout rates aren't quite as high as they've been in previous years, the rest of the underlying numbers are absolutely still there. He ranks in the top quartile of pitchers in terms of xERA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rare, with an xBA that grades out in the 93rd percentile.
Note that this Nationals lineup has actually been extremely productive to begin the 2026 season, ranking in the top five in baseball in terms of batting average, OPS, slugging rate and on-base percentage (OBP), but I'll trust Skenes to blank them in the opening frame of this one.
The Nationals will counter with righty Cade Cavalli, who currently holds a 2.52 ERA over his first three starts. Cavalli's offspeed pitches grade out very well, with a run value sitting in the 80th percentile, allowing him to succeed by generating a ton of soft contact. As evidence, Cavalli ranks in the top third of all pitchers in terms of average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate, and he keeps the ball out of the air with a ground ball rate of exactly 50%, which puts him in the 68th percentile.
My major concern for Cavalli would be his current walk rate of 14.5%, though I'm trusting that's a product of the early-season small sample size, and I believe that over the course of the season, we'll see some positive regression closer to the 6.8% walk rate he posted last season. If Cavalli can avoid the free pass in the first inning, I like him to keep the ball in the ballpark and come out unscathed. Add in the fact that PNC Park has actually graded out tied for dead-last in terms of home run factor since 2024, and I think this game has all the makings for a scoreless first inning.
Pick: NRFI (-145)
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
Starting Pitchers: Eury Perez vs. Grant Holmes
Third-year righty Grant Holmes gets the start for the Braves on Monday Night, looking to build off his impressive 2.55 ERA start to the season. Holmes currently sits in the top third of baseball in terms of xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, whiff rate and hard-hit rate, with an overall pitching run value and fastball value that rank above the 85th percentile.
Holmes draws the start against a Marlins team destined for negative regression, as it would be tough to keep up their current performance as a squad that finished in the bottom half of nearly every offensive category in 2025. Similar to Cavalli, if Holmes is able to avoid the free pass, I absolutely trust his stuff to have a clean first inning.
The Marlins will counter with a third-year righty of their own in Eury Perez, who absolutely has the stuff to be one of the best young pitchers in this league. Perez has been roughed up a bit this season, to the tune of a 5.06 ERA, but a lot of that has to do with his 12.7% walk rate. His swing and miss stuff is dynamic, evident by the fact that he graded out in the top quartile of pitchers last season in terms of fastball run value, xERA, xBA, whiff rate and chase rate.
Simply put, if Perez avoids the free pass, he absolutely has the potential to strike out the side. Truist Park grades out below league average in terms of overall offensive park factor, home run factor and doubles factor. This play gets home as long as both pitchers can fill up the strike zone.
Pick: NRFI (-120)