MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (5/6)
We have 10 games on Monday's MLB slate to choose from for our No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bets.
A couple of starting pitchers are making their 2024 debuts on Monday, and two pitchers in another game have not yet been confirmed. For NRFI purposes, I will avoid these games altogether.
However, there are still multiple games in which I expect the NRFI to come in for us. Here are some of my favorite NRFI plays for Monday, May 6.
Join our new MLB Betting Group to share bets and compete in leaderboards >>
Monday's Best MLB NRFI Picks
Check out our top two MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) player prop bet picks for Monday’s slate of baseball action.
San Diego Padres (+100) @ Chicago Cubs (-120) | O/U 7.5 (+105/-125)
Starting Pitchers: Yu Darvish vs. Justin Steele
Justin Steele returns to the mound for the first time since Opening Day when the Chicago Cubs face the San Diego Padres. He will be opposed by former Cub Yu Darvish.
Games played in Wrigley Field can be tricky because of the winds. However, early indications are that any winds whipping through Wrigley would favor the pitchers. This is baked into both the game total and the NRFI price.
I usually do not advocate for trusting pitchers coming off long layoffs. However, Steele has been stellar throughout his career in first innings. In 64 career starts, Steele has allowed just 15 earned runs, good for a 2.11 ERA. He has been even better at home, posting a 1.95 first-inning ERA in 37 career starts at Wrigley Field.
On the other side of the equation, Yu Darvish has been an NRFI king so far this year. Darvish is 6-0 pitching to the NRFI, allowing just two hits and two walks. He has allowed just four earned runs in 30 first innings since the beginning of last season.
This is a NRFI bet I would advise double-checking pricing before submitting. Most books do not have a line on this yet. I am playing it on ESPNBet at -140. However, you may find a better price elsewhere once other books post their prices.
Bet: NRFI (-140 via ESPN BET)
Seattle Mariners (-126) @ Minnesota Twins (+108) | O/U 7.5 (-104/-118)
Starting Pitchers: Luis Castillo vs. Simeon Woods Richardson
The Minnesota Twins lost for the first time in two weeks on Sunday. They will look to start a new winning streak when the Seattle Mariners come into town to begin a three-game series on Monday.
Simeon Woods Richardson has held down the fort quite nicely when called upon this season for the Twins. He has a 2.45 ERA through three starts. More importantly, for our purposes, he has pitched three perfect first innings this year.
The Seattle Mariners will counter with Luis Castillo. Castillo is 5-2 to the NRFI this year, which includes a loss via an unearned run. Castillo has allowed just five baserunners in those seven first innings, striking out nine batters in the process.
Neither offense has been one to fear in terms of first-inning output. The Mariners have scored in the first inning in just eight of 34 games this year, batting .202 with a 33.3% strikeout rate. Minnesota’s offense has not been much better early in ballgames. They have scored in nine of 33 first innings so far this season. Twins hitters are batting just .188 collectively in the first inning this year.
I believe these trends will continue both from a pitching and hitting standpoint, so I am taking the NRFI here between the Mariners and the Twins.
Bet: NRFI (-120 via FanDuel Sportsbook)