MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (7/21)
Monday’s MLB slate features 15 games on the baseball schedule. We have many ways to go for our top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks and predictions.
If you’re unfamiliar with MLB NRFI picks, they’re pretty simple. We’re betting on whether or not any runs will be scored in the first inning by either team. Both starting pitchers must throw a scoreless first inning for the bet to cash.
Without further ado, let’s get to my favorite MLB NRFI picks for Monday, July 21.
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(All odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty vs. Paul Skenes
Today's first NRFI pick features the Pirates hosting the Tigers. We have Paul Skenes on the mound for Pittsburgh, which immediately favors a scoreless first inning. Tigers starter Jack Flaherty should help cash it as well.
Skenes is rocking a 2.01 ERA and 0.93 WHIP heading into his first start after the All-Star break. His dominance features elite first-inning numbers, too. The Pirates' right-hander has thrown a scoreless opening frame in all 20 starts this year, with just a .186 batting average allowed in the first.
Skenes now owns a career 38-5 NRFI record (88%) with a 34.2% strikeout rate and 0.86 WHIP in the first inning over his two seasons. He's also thrown 25 straight scoreless first innings going back to last year. Let's bank on the Pittsburgh ace keeping it going at home tonight.
On the other side, Flaherty can hold serve in the NRFI department. The Detroit righty has tossed a scoreless first inning in 15-of-19 starts this year (79%). Last season, Flaherty posted a 22-6 NRFI record (79%). He also owns a career 75% NRFI rate.
This is a promising track record to trust. Flaherty now faces a Pirates offense that ranks dead last in first-inning runs scored this season. The lineup also has just a .253 wOBA in the opening frame during July (27th in MLB).
The NRFI odds are definitely steep in this game. Still, it's worth backing due to Skenes and encouraging trends on both sides.
Pick: NRFI (-175)
Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Brandon Woodruff vs. George Kirby
Let's now focus on a late-night tilt between the Brewers and Mariners. The starting pitching matchup features Brandon Woodruff for Milwaukee and George Kirby for Seattle. Bank on this pair of righties combining for a scoreless first inning.
Woodruff has looked good in his first two starts this year. He's allowed just three earned runs in 10.1 innings (2.61 ERA) with 18 strikeouts and no walks. Despite a long injury layoff, the Brewers' veteran appears to have regained the form we saw 2-3 years ago.
As for the NRFI, Woodruff has tossed a scoreless opening frame in both starts so far. This is an encouraging sign for a guy who owns a career 78% NRFI rate. In 2023, his last healthy season, Woodruff had a 9-2 NRFI record (82%). In 2022, he posted a 23-4 NRFI mark (85%)
Today, Woodruff will face a Seattle offense that's struggled in the first frame lately. In July, the Mariners are batting .133 in the opening inning (30th in MLB) with a .236 wOBA (28th). They also rank 27th in home batting average in the first inning overall this season.
Meanwhile, Kirby comes in with a 4.50 ERA through 10 starts this year. He's been up and down, but hopefully we get the better version at home here. Kirby has a 2.01 ERA over his last four home starts. He also owns a 3.07 FIP since the beginning of June (8 starts).
Kirby has a 7-3 NRFI mark this year (70%), including 4-1 at home. Last year, he tossed a scoreless first inning in 24-of-33 starts (73%). He also owns a 73% NRFI rate over the past three seasons combined.
The Seattle starter will take on a Brewers lineup that's also struggled in the first inning recently. In July, the Milwaukee offense is batting .196 in the opening frame (26th) with a .269 wOBA (25th). It's a good spot for Kirby at home to have success early on.
Pick: NRFI (-155)