MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (8/11)
Monday's MLB slate features 11 games on the baseball schedule. We have many ways to go for our top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks and predictions.
If you're unfamiliar with MLB NRFI picks, they're pretty simple. We're betting on whether or not any runs will be scored in the first inning by either team. Both starting pitchers must throw a scoreless first inning for the bet to cash.
Without further ado, let's get to my favorite MLB NRFI picks for Monday, August 11.
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Monday's Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(All odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers: Ryne Nelson vs. Nathan Eovaldi
Today's first NRFI pick takes us to an interleague matchup between the Diamondbacks and Rangers. We have two starting pitchers who bring in strong first-inning numbers. Let's back them to combine for a scoreless opening frame.
Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi is having an excellent season, with a 1.38 ERA and 0.84 WHIP through 19 starts. He's been outright dominant lately, posting a minimal 0.47 ERA over his past six starts. Plus, the veteran has allowed less than two earned runs in 13 of his last 14 outings with a 0.90 ERA in this stretch.
As you might expect, Eovaldi has also been elite in the first inning this year. He owns a 16-3 NRFI record (84%) with a 1.42 ERA and .206 batting average allowed in the frame. The Texas righty has posted a combined 77% NRFI rate over the past five seasons as well.
It's also worth mentioning Eovaldi's home numbers this year. He boasts a 1.54 ERA, 2.18 FIP, and .216 wOBA allowed across nine home starts so far. He also owns an 8-1 NRFI record at home this season. Though Eovaldi has to face a dangerous first-inning offense in Arizona here, we're banking on his 2025 dominance and encouraging NRFI trends to win out.
On the other side, Ryne Nelson starts for the Diamondbacks. He's having a solid season with a 3.20 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. The right-hander is also pitching well recently, with a 1.57 ERA over his past four starts and a 2.08 ERA over his past 10 starts.
Nelson's effectiveness usually starts early. He's thrown a scoreless first inning in 11-of-13 starts so far, including an 8-1 NRFI record over his last nine outings. It's a trend that's carried over from last year, when Nelson posted a 21-4 NRFI record (78%) with a 1.41 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in the first inning. Plus, he has a career 76% NRFI rate as a starter.
Nelson has been productive on the road lately, too. He has a 2.42 ERA over his last five road starts. In addition, he has a solid 5-2 NRFI record on the road this year.
Nelson now faces a Texas offense that's struggled in the first inning. In the frame this season, the Rangers have a .296 wOBA (28th in MLB) and .239 batting average (26th). Since the All-Star break, they're batting .192 with a .237 wOBA in the first.
Pick: NRFI (-120)
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros
Starting Pitchers: Garrett Crochet vs. Cristian Javier
Monday's Red Sox vs. Astros game features an intriguing starting pitching matchup. We have ace Garrett Crochet on the mound for Boston, while Cristian Javier makes his season debut for Houston. Both guys bring in trustworthy NRFI trends to back here.
Crochet has been great this season, with a 2.24 ERA over 23 starts. He's also been elite on the road, with a 2.08 ERA and 1.98 FIP across 12 road outings. The southpaw comes in pitching well lately. He owns a 1.91 ERA over his past five starts and a 2.09 ERA over his past nine starts.
Crochet also boasts excellent first-inning numbers. He owns an 18-5 NRFI record (78%) with a 41.3% strikeout rate and .230 batting average allowed in the opening frame. That success has carried over from last year, when the lefty posted a 26-5 NRFI mark (84%) with a 39.5% K rate and 0.84 WHIP in the first inning.
Let's back Crochet to set the tone early in Houston tonight. He'll face an Astros offense that ranks 28th in the Majors in first-inning runs scored this season. Plus, Crochet has tossed a scoreless first frame in 10-of-12 road starts thus far.
Meanwhile, Javier will make his long-awaited return for the 'Stros tonight. The righty hasn't pitched in the Majors since May of last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Even so, we have reasons to trust him, at least in the first inning.
Javier owns a career 79% NRFI rate as a starter. That includes a 0.95 WHIP and a 35.8% strikeout rate in the first inning over the years. He posted a 6-1 NRFI last year (86%), a 23-8 record in 2023 (74%), and a 19-6 mark in 2022 (76%).
Admittedly, the Red Sox have a potent first-inning offense, and we have no idea what we'll get from Javier in his first start back. Yet, let's hope we get some extra juice from the talented righty out of the gate. It also helps that he's thrown a scoreless first in 14 of his last 19 home starts (74%).
Pick: NRFI (-135)