MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (8/26)
While there are plenty of games on tap, Monday's MLB schedule may be a bit tricky for NRFI (No Run First Inning) betting purposes. We have a doubleheader, a rookie pitcher making his Major League debut, and a dreaded TBD. And though the game between the New York Yankees and Washington Nationals has not started yet, Aaron Judge has already homered.
However, there are still a few games I am comfortable wagering on. Here are three of my favorite NRFI plays for Monday, August 26.
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Monday's Best MLB No Runs First Inning Picks
(All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified)
Chicago Cubs (-108) at Pittsburgh Pirates (-108) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110)
Starting Pitchers: Jameson Taillon vs. Mitch Keller
My first NRFI bet for Monday is in the game between the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates. Mitch Keller will be on the bump for Pittsburgh, while Chicago counters with former Pirate Jameson Taillon.
Keller has had trouble containing some of the Cubs’ hitters throughout his career. However, he allowed just two hits over six innings in Wrigley Field earlier this season. That was a game in which he and Taillon tossed first-inning zeroes against their respective opponents.
I trust Keller because he has been a solid NRFI bet at home since some early struggles. He has pitched to an 8-0 NRFI record at PNC Park since the beginning of May.
Similarly, Taillon has been excellent on the road. He has held nine consecutive opponents in the first inning away from home and unlike Keller, Taillon has had success facing Pirate hitters in his career.
I anticipate Pittsburgh rolling out a top four of Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, and Rowdy Tellez on Monday. Reynolds is 3-for-9 against Taillon, but the other three hitters are a combined 1-for-18. Pittsburgh also has a 60 wRC+ in the first inning against right-handed pitchers in August. That is the fourth-lowest mark in the Majors.
I think that Keller and Taillon will keep this game scoreless through the first inning on Monday.
Bet: NRFI (-111 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Atlanta Braves (-110) at Minnesota Twins (-110) | O/U 8 (-105/-115)
Starting Pitchers: Max Fried vs. Bailey Ober
Next, we have an interleague matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins. Two of the league's best pitchers, Max Fried and Bailey Ober, will be on the hill.
Ober has not been a great NRFI pitcher this season. He is 15-9 overall, including 6-4 at home. However, I believe he can hold his own against a battered Braves lineup.
Atlanta lost Austin Riley to a broken hand last week, and Michael Harris left Sunday's game after being hit by a pitch. The team is already without Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies. Though they still have Jorge Soler, Marcell Ozuna, and Matt Olson, this is a much thinner lineup than the Braves are used to trotting out.
Although it has not always resulted in NRFIs, Ober has been outstanding at Target Field. He has posted a 2.78 home ERA this year. That is 14th-best among 100 pitchers who have faced at least 220 batters at home. I think he will be able to navigate his way to a scoreless first inning.
Max Fried has been an NRFI king since some early-season issues. Fried has posted 15 straight scoreless first innings, including eight on the road. He has a favorable matchup against Minnesota on Monday.
The Twins have a collective .220 on-base percentage and 58 wRC+ versus left-handed pitchers in the first inning since the All-Star break. They too have been hit by injuries, as Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are currently on the Injured List.
Minnesota likes to platoon their available hitters based on the handedness of the opposing pitcher, but that is a strategy that may backfire against Fried. Fried has held right-handed hitters to a .244 weighted on-base percentage this year.
That includes a .204 mark on the road, which is the second-lowest among 120 pitchers who have faced at least 100 right-handed hitters on the road this season. Fried should be able to hold his end of the NRFI bargain against the Twins on Monday night.
Bet: NRFI (-120 via BetMGM Sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Rays (+102) at Seattle Mariners (-120) | O/U 7 (-110/-110)
Starting Pitchers: Ryan Pepiot vs. Bryce Miller
My final NRFI bet is for the final game of the evening. Bryce Miller and the Seattle Mariners square off against Ryan Pepiot and the Tampa Bay Rays. This bet is still at a reasonable price on FanDuel. I have seen it as high as -160 at some other sportsbooks, so I am grabbing it while I can. Use your discretion and limits to decide whether you want to pay up for this depending on where this price lands.
As for the bet itself, let's start with Bryce Miller and his matchup with the Rays. It is a bit like Keller against the Cubs. Miller struggled in two starts against Tampa Bay last season, so his batter vs. pitcher numbers versus Rays hitters leave a lot to be desired. However, he has been one of the best home NRFI pitchers this season.
In 13 home starts, Miller has allowed just one run and seven hits in the first inning. He has held opponents to a wOBA of just .201 in this split. That is 11th-best among 96 starters who have made at least 10 home starts this year.
Tampa has been a weak offense against right-handed pitchers in the first inning during August. Their .623 OPS and 86 wRC+ both rank in the bottom eight in the Majors.
Ryan Pepiot's NRFI profile has been inconsistent overall, but he is 5-2 to the NRFI on the road. Pepiot also stymied Seattle earlier this year, holding the Mariners to one hit across 5.1 innings.
Seattle has been solid offensively (126 wRC+) when facing a right-handed pitcher this month in the first inning. However, that is boosted by a league-high 14.5-percent walk rate. Their .231 batting average is in the bottom third of the league. As long as Pepiot can avoid issuing free passes, I believe he will help us cash our final bet of the evening.
Bet: NRFI (-136 via FanDuel Sportsbook)