Navigate

MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (6/2)

by |

For Friday’s full slate of MLB games, I’m turning to four established pitchers with great pedigrees to have clean first innings against relatively potent offenses. Each pitcher has finished in the top 10 in Cy Young Award voting at least once since 2021, and I like their matchups for various reasons.

Chris Bassitt has been excellent at avoiding hard-hit balls. Justin Verlander and Shohei Ohtani have tremendous stuff with swing-and-miss potential, and Framber Valdez is the best in the MLB at keeping the ball on the ground. I like the fact that we’re getting a little extra value because of the lineups they’ll be pitching against, as well.

Here are our best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bets for Friday, June 2.

Wednesday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

2023 NRFI (18-15, -0.29 Units)

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Mets

Pitching matchup: Chris Bassitt vs. Justin Verlander

While it’s true that Justin Verlander has taken a step back in his age-40 season after multiple different injury rehabs, Statcast metrics still suggest that his stuff is among the best in the MLB. His fastball and curveball spin rates are among the top-25th percentile of pitchers, and his fastball velo still ranks well above league average, leading him to a 78th percentile chase rate on his pitches. His xERA of 3.85 is nearly a full run lower than his actual ERA of 4.80, so he should be due for some positive regression as well. He’s walking less than 5% of the batters he faces, and the Blue Jays are not demonstrably better offensively against RHP. I trust Verlander’s track record and pedigree to get through the top half of the first without surrendering a run.

Chris Bassitt, a former pitcher for the Mets, will be getting the start for the Blue Jays tonight. He’s been very solid for Toronto this season, pitching to the tune of a 3.80 ERA. However, he approaches hitters in a much different way than Verlander does. He does not overwhelm with velocity or spin rates, but he has done a phenomenal job at generating soft contact. He ranks 79th and 81st percentiles in average exit velocity and hard hit%, respectively, which is critical in the NRFI market. The Mets have slightly worse BA and SLG against RHP and don’t underestimate Bassitt’s knowledge of pitching against his former team. Additionally, Citi Field ranks 28th overall in offensive park factors, 29th in doubles, 26th in triples, 21st in HRs, and seventh overall in strikeouts since 2021.

Bet: NRFI (-110 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros

Pitching matchup: Shohei Ohtani vs. Framber Valdez

Shohei Ohtani has flat-out been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, reflected in his 2.87 xERA (87th percentile), which is somehow lower than his already impressive actual ERA of 2.91. He was built in a lab to get batters out, and he’s the perfect pitcher to back in this NRFI spot. His whiff% and K% both rank above the 93rd percentile, so he’s generating a ton of swing and misses. When opposing batters are lucky enough to put the ball in play, they’re not doing much damage, as his hard hit%, average exit velo, xBA and xSLG are all good for the top 10th percentile in the MLB. The Astros offense displays slightly less power against RHP this season as well, so we’ll get that bonus for Ohtani to have a clean first inning.

Framber Valdez has been another pitcher that I love to back in these NRFI spots. As I’ve stated previously, he’s been the best in the league at generating ground balls for quite some time now. His xERA is much higher than his actual ERA of 2.38, which is likely because his pitches have been hit pretty hard. Yet, that’s the beauty of Valdez as a pitcher. He’s always been hit relatively hard, but if the ball is staying on the ground rather than getting elevated, those hard-hit balls get turned into outs more often than not. He ranks above the 70th percentile in K%, walks just over 5% of the batters he faces and his sinker-ball style of pitching will help neutralize an Angels offense that does hit slightly better against LHP. Angel Stadium has been relatively hitter-friendly since 2021, though it does rank below league average in terms of doubles and above league average in terms of strikeouts.

Bet: NRFI (-110 via Bet365)

Check out our other best bets for Friday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts