Navigate

MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (6/9)

by |

I’m turning to some trends to help inform my NFRI plays for this Friday’s full slate of MLB games. 3 of the 4 teams in this article rank in the top 10 in terms of “NRFI success”; in other words, they have succeeded at not scoring or not surrendering runs in the first inning at a higher rate than most other teams in the league. The Marlins rank No. 1, generating NRFI success nearly 2/3 of the time, followed by the White Sox at #4 and the Cubs at #10. For reference, only 13 teams are having NRFI success at an above 50% clip. The only team outside of the top 10 that I’m including is the San Francisco Giants, but as I’ve laid out below, I like the matchup regardless, and we should have an overall poor hitting environment in that game due to the combination of matchups, weather, and ballpark.

Friday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

2023 NRFI (19-18, -2.42 Units)

Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins – NRFI (-120 @ BetMGM, Caesars, Bet365)

Eury Perez, the No. 1 prospect in the Marlins organization, has already shown that he has one of the most dynamic fastballs in the entire MLB as a 20-year-old. His fastball velo and spin rank in the 90th percentile, which is helping him generate whiffs at the 84th percentile. He doesn’t have a large enough sample size to draw too many conclusions from yet, but he does have a 2.25 ERA, and his xERA over his last 50 batters faced suggests that he’s figuring some things out and trending in the positive direction. He’ll be facing a very right-handed heavy lineup in the White Sox, who are already a bottom 10 team in BA, OBP, OPS, and SLG, and will be in their far worse offensive splits against the righty Perez.

Dylan Cease hasn’t quite been the Cy Young contender that we saw last season, which is a little puzzling considering his fastball and curveball are still grading out well above league average. He’s still getting whiffs and K’s at higher rates than average, but he’s been hit harder this year than in previous years. That being said, I still like his matchup tonight against a Marlins lineup that does not possess a whole lot of power. While the Marlins are a middling team in terms of BA and OBP (in large part due to what Luis Arraez is doing this year), they’re a bottom 10 team in 2B, HR, and total runs scored. Like Perez, Cease will also get the advantage of pitching against the Marlins in their worse offensive splits against RHP.

San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs – NRFI (-135 DraftKings)

Marcus Stroman has bounced back in a big way in 2023, joining the conversation as one of the best pitchers in the National League. His 2.39 ERA and 1.00 WHIP are fantastic, and his xERA sits in the 64th percentile, suggesting he’s not just been getting lucky. He’s missing barrels at a rate in the 90th percentile and making batters chase at pitches outside the strike zone at rates above league average, which has resulted in his xSLG being in the 71st percentile. His numbers over his last 50 and 100 batters faced are also trending in the positive direction, so there’s been no drop-off from Stroman. Oracle Park has ranked below league average in offensive park factors since 2021, and we’ll get the added benefit of an unseasonably cool night in the 50s in San Francisco this evening.

Anthony DeSclafani is an interesting case study of a pitcher who’s been successful despite lacking the “stuff” to do so. While his Statcast page won’t wow you, his 1.12 WHIP is just slightly higher than that of Stroman’s (still pretty good), and his ERA is a respectable 3.97. He’s right around league average in most advanced analytics, but he excels at pounding the strike zone, walking just above four percent of the batters he faces. Balls will certainly be in play against DeSclafani, but the fact that his average launch angle is also below league average will help and suggests that he relies on generating ground balls. I’ve backed DeSclafani in this market on multiple occasions and have yet to get burned, and I like his overall matchup against this Cubs lineup that does not hit RHP nearly as well as they hit LHP.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts