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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (9/1)

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Not too many games stood out to me this evening as viable NRFI candidates, but I was able to find two that I have high confidence in. The first game features 2 of my most commonly backed pitchers this year, with Freddy Peralta and Zack Wheeler facing off in what should be a pretty low-scoring game. The other game will have two pitchers that I haven't had the opportunity to back as much, Kodai Senga and George Kirby, but I think the matchups and split advantages are in our favor to make that a strong play, as well. Both games will be played in bottom-10 offensive ballparks, and both games feature a team that is hitting NRFIs at least at a 50% clip (Brewers and Mets). These games also both have a consensus total of 7.5, which is tied for the current lowest totals on the board this Friday evening.

2023 NRFI (45-39, -1.84 Units)

Friday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies - No Runs 1st Inning (-125 Caesars)

Freddy Peralta gets the start for Milwaukee tonight at the tail end of what has been a really impressive season for the Brewers’ righty. Peralta's xERA has been perennially great over his entire career at the major league level, and this year has been no different, as his 3.33 xERA ranks in the 82nd percentile. Peralta has been able to avoid hard contact for the most part, as his hard hit% ranks in the 61st percentile, and his average exit velo and xBA both rank in the top quartile of the MLB. He's also a big-time swing-and-miss artist, as his whiff% and K% both put him in the top 10% of the league. While the Phillies offense is nothing to scoff at, they do hit for average and power at a slightly lower clip against righties, so Peralta will have that in his favor for this matchup, as well. He will also get the benefit of pitching at home, where he's had more success, in a bottom-10 ballpark in terms of overall offensive park factors since 2021, via Statcast.

On the other side, Zack Wheeler will get the ball for the Phillies, who might be the most successful pitcher that I've backed in these NRFI spots over the course of this season. Wheeler has had a phenomenal season, arguably taking over Aaron Nola for the #1 spot in the Phillies rotation, and he seemingly does everything that Peralta does well, except he does it a little better. His xERA of 3.16 ranks in the 88th percentile, and his hard hit%, barrel% and average exit velo all put him in the top third of the league (85th percentile or better for the latter 2). His walk rate is one of the lowest in the league at 4.6%, and his K% and chase rate both put him in the top quartile of the MLB. As I've chronicled in previous articles, the Brewers’ offense is nothing to write home about, ranking 20th or worse in 2B, HR, AVG, OBP, OPS, and SLG. They'll also be in their noticeably inferior hitting splits against the righty Wheeler, which is another advantage in his favor.

New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners - No Run 1st Inning (-120 DraftKings/BetMGM)

*Note - I see George Kirby as the listed starting pitcher for Seattle on some outlets, but I've seen "TBA" on others. I will only be making this play if Kirby starts.*

The Mets will send out Kodai Senga, who has had a really strong first season in the MLB. Like the aforementioned pitchers, Senga has been better than most at avoiding hard-hit balls, with his average exit velo, xBA, and barrel% all ranking above the 70th percentile. He's made a name as a pretty heavy ground ball pitcher, ranking in the top third of the league in GB%. His whiff% and K% also rank above the 78th percentile, so he's no slouch when it comes to getting batters to swing and miss, either. The Mariners have been on fire as of late, but there's a pretty stark drop-off in offensive performance when facing right-handed pitchers compared to lefties, so Senga will have that advantage in the opening frame, as well.

The Mariners will start the young righty George Kirby, who has had an extremely productive second season in the bigs. Kirby is the number one pitcher in baseball in terms of avoiding the free pass, walking batters at a ridiculously low 2.3%. While his hard hit%, barrel% and average exit velocity are all floating around league average, he generates ground balls on over nearly 45% of the balls in play, which is good for the 61st percentile. He's been great at getting batters to chase on pitches outside the zone, ranking in the 82nd percentile in that category, and dating back to August 4, his xWOBA has been significantly better than that of league average, illustrating that he's currently in really good form. The Mets have vastly underperformed expectations this season, resulting in a team that ranks in the bottom half of the league in AVG, OBP, OPS, and SLG, and ranks second to last overall in 2B. Additionally, Citi Field ranks 4th-worst of all MLB ballparks since 2021 in terms of overall offensive ballpark factors via Statcast.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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