Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions (9/2)
This Friday night edition of NRFIs is a National League affair. We have four of the best arms that you can find, all pitted against one another as they aim to put up zeroes on the scoreboard. So let’s find out who they are and why we’re backing them in today’s top NRFI plays of the slate.
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Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves – 7:20 pm ET
Charlie Morton will have a tough act to follow after Spencer Strider’s 16 strikeout performance last night. However, he’ll have an opportunity to throw a gem of his own as he faces a Marlins lineup that has been one of the worst in baseball this season. They enter ranking in the bottom five in wRC+, wOBA, and team batting average. As you can imagine, those numbers are not a recipe for scoring in the first inning, in which Miami ranks dead last. Morton’s first-inning numbers are due to some rough early-season outings, but he’s pitched much better since the All-Star break. In seven second-half starts, he has a 3.27 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. We’ve also seen his strikeout numbers jump as he’s recorded 54 in 41 innings in that same span. Everything is trending Morton’s way for this matchup.
In addition to Morton pitching well, it also helps that his counterpart in this matchup is perhaps the best pitcher in baseball this season. Sandy Alcantara has had a career year as he enters with a 2.13 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and leads the league in innings pitched by a wide margin. His success starts in the first inning, where he’s been dominant. Through 26 starts, he holds a 1.73 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. As for his matchup, the Braves are actually a good team to target for NRFIs despite all their firepower. They have been slow starters this season as they come in, ranking 20th in first-inning runs per game.
Pick: NRFI -140
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers – 10:10 pm ET
While this may seem like a matchup of stout lineups, this actually has more potential to be a pitcher’s duel than a laser show, and it’s all because of the men on the mound. Getting us started at Chavez Ravine will be Dustin May. This will be just May’s third start back from Tommy John, but he has looked electric in his first two outings. For his career, he holds a 2.82 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while averaging a strikeout per inning. In addition, his stuff has looked as electric as ever. No one has gotten a hit off his 98 mph sinker yet this season, and this Padres lineup that ranks 21st in first-inning runs per game on the road does not show much promise, despite having star power at the top of their lineup.
The other half of this inning will be a tall task for Yu Darvish as the Dodgers enter boasting the best first inning runs per game rate in the majors. Darvish has seen a ton of the Dodgers bats over the course of his career, but the top three of the order have had some success against him. Betts is hitting .217 off Darvish, Turner is hitting .353, and Freeman is hitting .368. However, Freeman and Turner are due for some sizable regression as their xBAs are .291 and .326, respectively. Then as for Betts, he’s due for some positive regression, but his xBA is just 21 points higher, and his slugging is expected to drop significantly. In fact, all three of their xSLGs are substantially lower than their career percentages off Darvish. So if the numbers are correct, expect a clean bottom of the first.
Pick: NRFI -120
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