Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (9/23)
Today looking through the NRFI bets, I saw something you do not see very often. The NRFI bet for the Padres Rockies game is +130. Both starters have ERAs over 5, so it makes sense on paper, but that’s definitely one that I don’t see very often. While I cannot justify betting that one, there are a few I like better on today’s slate.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Cleveland Guardians at Texas Rangers – 8:05 ET
The Guardians are one of the hottest teams in baseball, carried mainly by their elite pitching staff. While their offense has not necessarily been a strong suit, their top end of the lineup is significantly better than the rest of the lineup. Today, Jon Gray takes the mound against them, and Gray has actually had a pretty decent first season in Texas. He has not necessarily been the ace they hoped for, but he has been slightly above average across the board. He has a K/9 over nine with about three walks per nine as well. He does allow a baserunner an inning, but as long as he can keep Jose Ramirez from doing a ton of damage, he should be able to keep the Guardians off the board.
On the other side of this is rookie Cody Morris. Morris only has pitched 15 big league innings but comes into the game with a 2.3 ERA. However, the underlying metrics do not paint a pretty picture. He has allowed nine walks and three homers in those fifteen innings. That is certainly a concern in the first against this Rangers lineup with several power hitters due to hit in the first. However, I do think that the skills that Morris has shown in the majors have been a bit of an aberration. Across his minor league seasons, he did not have any issues with walks or homers, and I think this could be a get-right game for him. The Rangers do swing and miss more than most offenses, and I think this could allow Morris to have a clean first frame.
Pick: NRFI -140
Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles – 7:05 ET
The Orioles and Kyle Bradish managed to pull off a feat that has not been accomplished many times this season when they shut out the Astros. Today, Dean Kremer tries to do the same. Kremer has been an above-average pitcher this season, but the success has been a bit of smoke and mirrors. He has a well below-average K rate and is allowing a hit per inning but has managed to keep the success rolling by limiting his walks and his homers. This Astros offense is still one of the best in baseball but is a bit weaker when it does not have Jose Altuve hitting at the top of the order. He missed yesterday’s game after taking a pitch off his elbow earlier this week, and if he is out again, then this looks like a great play.
The opposing pitcher in this matchup is Jose Urquidy. Urquidy has never been my favorite pitcher due to a low K-rate and elevated homer numbers. With the change in the park, the Orioles’ offense is no longer a huge concern regarding the long ball, which has historically been Urquidy’s problem. As long as Urquidy can keep guys like Adley Ruschman in the yard in the first, he should have no issues getting a clean first inning and making sure this bet hits.
Pick: NRFI -135
Go premium to view today’s 5 Star prop bets >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.