MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (8/21)
We have ten games to choose from on this Monday with the matchup with the most playoff relevance being the Giants heading out East to face the Phillies. Both teams currently hold a WC spot in the NL but not much separates the top from missing the playoff entirely. If either team takes hold of this series it could mean a lot for their playoff hopes. Let’s dive into the rest of the slate to find our favorite matchups.
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Monday's Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Chicago Cubs at Detroit Tigers
Alex Faedo is taking the mound for the Tigers and he is someone that I have written up a number of times before. Essentially, some poor luck metrics like LOB% are hiding what seems like some decent skills. He will never be an ace, but with solid walk and strikeout rates he has the makings of a solid 4th/5th starter. He has actually been great the first time through the order with a 0.236 wOBA. The Cubs’ offense has been much better lately and in fact have been among the league’s best. However, Faedo has shown enough for me to bet on him to keep a clean first confidently. Javier Assad gets the ball on the other side and his bet is partially on him and more on the struggles of the Tigers’ offense as a whole. Assad has been good as a starter in a limited sample but the skills are less appealing overall. His super limited first time through the order sample shows a 0.217 wOBA allowed. While I don’t love him long term he has enough for us to take him in this matchup.
Pick: No Runs First Inning (+100)
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Angels
Overall, I don’t love this bet but I also don’t really like the rest of the board as a whole. Lucas Giolito gets the ball for the Angels and he has not been at his best the first time through the order this season with a wOBA over .340. However, he does have better numbers throughout his career, coming in at 0.317. The Reds’ offense has been in a tailspin with an 84 wRC+ in the last two weeks. The Angels’ offense however has been even worse with a wRC+ of 60. They have truly been awful and Graham Ashcraft takes the mound for Cincy. Ashcraft has been good lately allowing two or fewer runs in seven of his last nine outings. His 0.324 wOBA allowed is nothing spectacular the first time through but with his recent improvement as well as the struggles of the Angels’ offense this look like a nice bet on paper.
Pick: No Runs First Inning (-110)
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