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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (9/18)

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We have two weeks left in the regular season and while many of the playoff spots are already locked up or essentially locked up, the NL WC race is on fire. There are five teams battling for the last two spots. Let’s take a look at the NRFI slate on this eleven game Monday.

Monday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

We are taking this game solely because of the cost at +110. The Phillies are sending out Zach Wheeler, who has been one of the best pitchers in the NL. The Braves have an almost impossibly good offense, especially at the top which is why this is priced the way it is. But Wheeler has been excellent the first time through the order. He has allowed a 0.246 wOBA and has only allowed six homers the first time through the order. If anyone has a reasonable shot of stopping this Braves’ offense, it is Wheeler. Kyle Wright makes start number seven on the year and although his surface numbers look ugly, his estimators are not horrible. He has allowed more walks (common for injury recovery) despite a slight uptick in strikeouts. He has decent first-time through-the-order splits (0.297 wOBA) in his career and while the Phillies’ offense is not as dangerous as the Braves, they have similar talent at the top. With this matchup, it feels like the offenses are getting more credit than they should against solid arms.

Pick: No Run 1st Inning (+110)

Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros

Yesterday, the Orioles clinched a postseason berth for the first time in seven years. While this is usually a sign that the team will send out a hangover lineup, they are only two games up in the division and will likely be pushing hard. However, we can expect a less-than-100% lineup being put out there today and it should not matter for Justin Verlander, who despite struggles relative to his usual performance, is still one of the league’s best arms. His 0.328 wOBA the first time the order this season is elevated for him, but combine that with a possibly lesser lineup from Baltimore and it’s a good bet. John Means was solid in his first game back from Tommy John surgery, with homers being his main issue. He was once one of the more interesting young lefties in the game and I believe he will be able to get back to that point soon. In his career, he has allowed a 0.282 wOBA the first time through the order. Despite the danger associated with this Astros’ lineup at the top, I think he is a great bet for a clean inning.

Pick: No Run 1st Inning (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:


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