Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (10/3)
We are finally here, the last week of the regular season. After a long grueling season, most teams have three games remaining on the schedule. This means strange lineups, shortened starts, and altogether weird games. However, the train keeps running, so let’s take a look a today’s NRFI bets.
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Washington Nationals at New York Mets – 7:10 ET
Mets return home with their tails between their legs a bit after a rough weekend in Atlanta. They absolutely need to win this game and send Carlos Carrasco to the mound in the series opener. Carrasco has actually struggled a bit the first time through the order with a wOBA allowed of 0.333, which is higher than the second and third time through the order. Washington’s offense has actually been decent in the last thirty days but is still below average with a wRC+ of 93. The top of the Nats order does not instill fear in anyone, so I believe that Carrasco can cleanly push through the first inning.
On the other end of the matchup, the Nationals send Cory Abbott to the mound. Abbott has really been terrible in 2022. He walks too many hitters, allows too many homers, and does not generate enough swing and miss to succeed. Over the last week, the Mets’ offense has cratered as they are tied for the fourth lowest runs scored total in the last week. Their top of the order is still well above average, but the offense is struggling as a whole. Abbott actually has impressive first time through the order splits with a wOBA allowed of 02.63 before it balloons to over 0.400 the second time through. This is all a perfect combination for an NRFI bet.
Pick: NRFI -130
Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers 7:40 ET
The Brewers are one of the few remaining teams that still have something to play for. One more loss could mean the end of their playoff push, and they send one of their aces, Brandon Woodruff, to the mound. Woodruff has been excellent in the second half of the season and has a sub-two ERA at home. While this Diamondbacks’ offense has been solid in the last month or so, Woodruff is on such a great run that he should be able to keep this going. His main issue this season has been the third time through the order. He has been elite the first two turns but often finds himself staying in games just a bit too long.
For the Diamondbacks side, Tommy Henry gets the start. The young lefty has had a bit of an up-and-down start to his career, but the last few starts have been rough. Like many young pitchers, his issue is walks and homers. However, he faces a Brewers offense that has struggled against lefties. They have a wRC+ of 91 against southpaws. While they are a team in desperate need of a win, the Brewers, much like the Mets, have gone cold offensively of late. Henry can do just enough to make it safely through the first inning in this one.
Pick: NRFI -140
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