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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (5/20)

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Here are my favorite NRFI bets for today’s MLB slate.

Saturday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Boston Red Sox vs. San Diego Padres

Pitching matchup: Chris Sale vs. Joe Musgrove

Joe Musgrove has struggled since coming back from his injury. Over his first starts, he is 1-1 with a 6.63 ERA. Musgrove has given four home runs and allowed eight walks in those starts. If he is going to have any success moving forward, he can’t be giving away free bases at that rate.

To Musgrove’s defense, all four games he has started were against division foes. Not that should be used as an excuse, but the familiarity those teams have with him doesn’t help. Today he is going against a Red Sox team with only one player with more than ten at-bats, Justin Turner.

As for Chris Sale, he has pitched better than his 5.40 ERA indicates. Sale has posted a 3.73 xERA and 3.49 xFIP, which shows his ERA is a bit inflated, and he has been a bit unlucky. 

Only Xander Bogaerts and Nelson Cruz have double-digit at-bats against Sale, in which both are hitting over .300. Lucky for us, we only got through one inning.

Bet: NRFI -140

Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Mets

Pitching matchup: Tanner Bibee vs. Max Scherzer

These two teams have one major thing in common; they can’t hit consistently. This looks like a bad take, as they combined to score 19 runs on 23 hits last night. But both teams rank in the bottom 10 in runs per game (CLE 3.61 NYM 4.35) and are below average in most hitting categories.

Cleveland’s Offensive Ranks

  • AVG: 25th
  • wOBA: 30th
  • wRC+: 30th
  • SLG%: 30th

New York’s Offensive Ranks

  • AVG: 20th
  • wOBA: 16th
  • wRC+: 13th
  • SLG%: 19th

With the Mets’ offense a bit better than the Guardians, it’s nice to know that Tanner Bibee has a very low HardHit% (33.3%) and Barrel% (6.7%). Even if/when the Mets make contact, it’s safe to assume it shouldn’t cause too much damage, at least, we hope.

Bet: NRFI -120

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Saturday:

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