MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (8/19)
Here are our favorite plays from today’s MLB slate.
Best Saturday MLB No Runs First Inning Bets
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago Cubs
Brady Singer vs. Justin Steele
First, let’s start with the offenses of these two teams. Regarding the first inning, they have each scored 60 first-inning runs, ranking in the bottom third of the league. Their first-inning ranks in ISO, BABIP, wOBA, and WRC+ also rank in the bottom third of the league.
As for the Royals starter, Brady Singer, he has only allowed a run in the first inning in three of his nine road starts. Despite a high 4.91 ERA, opponents have a .233 batting average against him the first time through the lineup.
As for Justin Steele, he is 13-3 with a 2.79 ERA in 2023. One of the unsung heroes of this Cubs team. Steele has an NRFI record of 18-4, only allowing five first-inning runs in 2023. Opponents are hitting a lousy .200 against him the first time through the lineup.
Bet: NRFI +105
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Minnesota Twins
Mitch Keller vs. Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray has a 10-1 NRFI record while pitching at home. He has only allowed three first-inning runs in 2023, tied for the 3rd least in the MLB. He has a great matchup, as the Pirates have only scored 51 runs in the first inning, the 4th least. Only the Marlins, Jays, and Mets have scored fewer.
On the flip side, the Pirates are starting Mitch Keller, and this is where things may get a bit dicey. Despite a high ERA of 4.27, Keller has the ability to strike guys out. In 2023, Keller has racked up 161 strikeouts, the 10th most in the MLB. For perspective, he has more K’s than guys like Dylan Cease, Zach Wheeler, Sonny Gray, and Max Scherzer.
The good news for Mitch Keller, there is not a team with a higher K% than the Minnesota Twins. The Twins own the highest K% in the league at 26.9 percent and hold the 2nd highest K% in the first inning (28.9 percent).
Bet: NRFI -105
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