Top MLB Wild Card No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (10/8)
We gear up for another thrilling day of Wild Card baseball as four teams, including three home teams, face elimination. The Cardinals, Blue Jays and Mets each dropped home games yesterday and will have to scratch and claw their ways to victory to keep their World Series hopes alive.
Below I’ve listed my top two No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bets for today’s four-game slate.
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Odds Courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians picked up a 2-1 victory in the series opener yesterday behind a dominant pitching performance from Shane Bieber. The 2020 Cy Young winner lasted 7.2 innings, allowing just one earned run on three hits and a walk. Cleveland will look to close out the series this afternoon as they send Triston McKenzie to the bump. Tampa Bay turns to Tyler Glasnow in this Wild Card showdown set for 12:07 p.m. ET from Ohio.
Glasnow’s only made two starts this season but that was essentially the plan all along. The right-hander had Tommy John Surgery last August and most experts speculated that he’d be able to recover just in time for Tampa Bay’s 2022 postseason. Glasnow’s 0-0 over the two outings with a 1.35 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 10 punchouts (6.2 IP). The lone run that he gave up was a home run to Gabriel Arias when he started against Cleveland on September 28th.
Interestingly, McKenzie also started that game and went 6.0 innings, allowing just one earned run on three hits and a walk. It was a 2-1 ballgame that Cleveland won in the 10th inning. The right-hander finished the 2022 campaign with an 11-11 record to go along with a 2.96 ERA (19th) and 0.95 WHIP (5th).
These two franchises are built on pitching so I feel pretty comfortable locking in NRFI in this matchup. As for the head-to-head numbers, the Rays are just 7-42 (.167) against McKenzie while the Guardians are only 3-20 (.150) against Glasnow. This pitching matchup combined with these two mediocre offenses makes me think we’re in for a repeat of yesterday’s pitching duel. Let’s roll with NRFI in Cleveland this afternoon.
Bet: Rays at Guardians NRFI (-160 via Caesars)
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
The Padres relied on a barrage of home runs to take down Max Scherzer and the Mets last night. It was a 7-1 victory that featured four long balls from the Friars. They’ll try to knock off the 101-win Mets this evening as they give Blake Snell the nod. The Mets counter with Jacob deGrom in this N.L. clash scheduled for 7:37 p.m. ET from Citi Field.
Snell has been extremely serviceable down the stretch, closing out the season with a 1.54 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over his final seven starts. Overall on the year, the southpaw finished 8-10 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Most recently, he threw 6.0 innings against the White Sox and limited them to one earned run on three hits and a walk. He took the loss in a 2-1 game but San Diego is 3-1 over his last four starts.
deGrom only made 11 starts this season and finished 5-4 with a 3.08 ERA and 0.75 WHIP over 64.1 innings pitched. The right-hander posted a quality start last time out against the Braves last Friday. deGrom went 6.0 frames and allowed three earned runs on five hits while striking out 11. New York dropped the game 5-2 and they’ve now lost his last two starts.
While deGrom wasn’t as elite as we’re accustomed to finishing the season, I think this is a great opportunity for him to bounce back and turn in a great outing. Over six home starts this year, the veteran hurler went 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA and 0.59 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .145 batting average. As for the head-to-head numbers, the Friars are just 19-100 (.190) against deGrom with 42 strikeouts. On the flip side, the Mets are 28-108 (.259) against Snell. While not as impressive as deGrom’s head-to-head stats, we can rely on the fantastic form that Snell is in. Let’s go with NRFI in the Big Apple tonight.
Bet: Padres at Mets NRFI (-160 via Caesars)
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