MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (7/20)
We have 10 games on the board today, with the first game of the day beginning at 12:20 p.m. ET. The Orioles and Rays open up a series with major implications for the landscape of the AL East and AL playoff race. We also have Blake Snell taking the mound in the midst of one of the best stretches of pitching in recent MLB history.
Let’s dive in and find our favorite No Run First Innings (NRFI) bets of the day.
Thursday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Pitching matchup: Corbin Burnes vs. Taijaun Walker
The first thing I do when looking at these bets is run through the odds for the day to see if any numbers jump out. This one was certainly one that caught my eye. We usually see even money bets come through on games with a poor on-paper pitching matchup or a game being played in Coors or Great American Ball Park. Citizens Bank Ballpark is obviously offensive-minded, but this is a solid pitching matchup.
Taijuan Walker gets the ball for Philly. He has had a good 2023 season and has been decent enough the first time through the order. His 0.316 wOBA allowed is nothing special, but it’s good enough that the odds he keeps a clean first are high. Corbin Burnes is taking the ball on the other side. He has taken a step back overall, but his 0.288 wOBA the first time through the order is still well above average and signals that he is a great piece to this bet.
Bet: NRFI (+100)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Pitching matchup: Kyle Gibson vs. Tyler Glasnow
In a matchup of top-of-the-AL ballclubs, the Rays are sending out Tyler Glasnow to open the series. Since returning from the IL, Glasnow has had massive K numbers with a few too many BBs and HRs allowed. His kryptonite has actually been early in games as his wOBA allowed actually gradually improves each time through the order. The Orioles have one of the league’s better offenses. Still, in a big matchup like this, I like Glasnow’s chances of holding down a clean inning at home.
Veteran Kyle Gibson takes the mound for Baltimore, and he gets to face a struggling Tampa offense. After getting off to an insane start, the offense has come back to earth with a 99 wRC+ in the last 30 days. Gibson limits walks and keeps the ball in the yard, which allows him to essentially be a league-average starter. He has also gotten better as the game has gone on this season, but this is mostly a bet against the Rays’ offense in this one.
Bet: NRFI (-105)
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