MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (8/17)
We have an extremely thin slate of games today with only six for us to choose from. The matchup of the day is Brewers vs.Dodgers with Lance Lynn facing off against1 Corbin Burnes. We likely will not choose this one as a NRFI bet but from a pure baseball standpoint, it is the most interesting game on the board. Let’s dive into my favorite NRFI bets.
Thursday’s Best NRFI Bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals
This is almost entirely a bet based on the odds we can get. At +120, this is a number we just don’t see for NRFI bets outside of Coors. The reason behind this is that Adam Wainwright has been terrible. Wainright has gotten hit hard all the time but his first time through wOBA allowed is over 0.400. This is definitely not the type of player we typically bet on but the Mets’ offense has had its struggles since the deadline. At these odds, we are betting Wainwright can pitch a clean frame. In his limited sample this season Jose Quintana has been excellent for the Mets. He has allowed a 0.255 wOBA the first time through the order but his numbers are a bit overstated due to not allowing a homer. I believe he should be able to keep a clean frame despite some signs pointing to regression for the left-hander. Let’s just see the regression begin in the second inning today.
Pick: No Runs First Inning (+120)
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Rich Hill takes the mound for the Padres and he has struggled a bit since the trade to San Diego. However, he has had a decent season overall for a veteran pitcher this age and while his numbers don’t jump out he is about as steady as they come. Arizona has a 95 wRC+ versus lefties this season so the bet is that Hill should be able to take advantage of their relative struggles to throw a clean frame. Zac Gallen gets the ball on the other side and he is the in the midst of another fantastic season. He keeps the walk numbers down which always helps pitchers the first time through the order and his 0.251 wOBA allowed supports that theory. The Padres offense is improved but still not necessarily elite making this a good bet for our purposes.
Pick: No Runs First Inning (-110)
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