Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (9/8)
While most eyes will be on tonight’s NFL opener between the Bills and Rams in Los Angeles, I’ll be locked in on the MLB’s seven-game card. It’s a getaway day, so we have games starting as early as 1:15 p.m. ET, with the Nationals wrapping up a series with the Cardinals. Below I’ve listed my top three No Runs First Inning (NRFI) plays for today.
Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers get set to host the Giants for a brief two-game set starting tonight in Milwaukee. San Francisco goes with Scott Alexander in the opener, while Milwaukee counters with Corbin Burnes in this N.L. matchup set for 4:10 p.m. ET.
Alexander hasn’t seen much action in the big leagues over the last few years, and you have to go back to 2018 to find a season where he threw more than 20.0 innings (66.0 IP in 2018). The southpaw was working in the Dodgers bullpen from 2018-2021 and has been in the Giants system for all of 2022. Alexander finally got called up in late August and has thrown just 5.1 innings over five outings for San Francisco. He’s been efficient, allowing just one earned run (1.69 ERA) and posting a 0.56 WHIP with six strikeouts. Tonight’s game will be his second career start, and I would assume it’s in an “opener role†as he hasn’t worked more than 1.1 innings this season.
Burnes, on the other hand, will hopefully work much further into tonight’s game. The right-hander comes in at 9-6 on the year with a 3.02 ERA (16th) and 1.01 WHIP (10th). He’s also struck out the third-most hitters in 2022 with 200 punchouts. However, Burnes hasn’t had his best stuff recently, as he’s allowed 10 earned runs on 15 hits over his last two outings against the Diamondbacks and Pirates (11.2 IP).
While Burnes hasn’t been great recently, this will be a good opportunity for him to get back on track against a San Francisco team that ranks 23rd in team batting average (.234) and 13th in OPS (.709). He’s already faced them once this season and held them scoreless over 6.2 innings while striking out 11. As for Alexander, he’s faced this Brewers lineup over the years, and they’ve gone just 2-17 (.118) against him, with Andrew McCutchen, Kolten Wong, and Christian Yelich combining to go 0-10 (.000) against him with a walk. Omar Narvaez and Hunter Renfroe each have a double against Alexander. All things considered, I think this game has a great chance to be scoreless after one.
Bet: Giants at Brewers NRFI (-140 via DraftKings)
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
The Twins haven’t been playing great as of late, losing six of their last seven games. That includes three straight losses to start this series with the Yankees, and they’ll try to salvage it with a win tonight as they turn to Sonny Gray to take the ball. The Bombers give Nestor Cortes the nod in his first start since August 21st (strained groin). Tonight’s A.L. clash is set for 7:05 p.m. ET from Yankee Stadium.
Gray has been a very reliable option for Minnesota this year and comes in at 7-4 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 21 starts. Most recently, the right-hander took a no-decision against the White Sox, going 4.0 innings and giving up two earned runs on five hits and a walk.
Cortes enters tonight’s game at 9-4 with a 2.68 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 23 starts. The lefty seems to be getting back to the form that he was in to start the year as he’s collected three straight quality starts. Last time out, back on August 21st, Cortes limited the Blue Jays to one earned run on three hits and a walk over 6.0 innings and took a no-decision.
Cortes sees his ERA dip to 2.20 at home, and opponents are hitting just .173 against him at Yankee Stadium. He faced the Twins once this year back in June, and they got to him for four earned runs over 4.1 innings. However, this Twins team is struggling right now and will still be without Byron Buxton for the time being. I think Cortes should be able to turn in another great start in front of his home crowd. As for Gray, he’s faced this Yankees lineup in 21 at-bats and allowed just three singles. Aaron Judge is 1-3 (.333) while Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Aaron Hicks are a combined 0-7 (.000). Let’s ride with NRFI in the Bronx tonight.
Bet: Twins at Yankees NRFI (-135 via DraftKings)
Chicago White Sox vs. Oakland Athletics
Chicago’s finally showing signs of life, having won six out of their last eight games. They’ll head to Oakland for four games, and they trail Cleveland in the Central by just 2.0 games heading into tonight’s action. They have to be feeling good as Dylan Cease heads to the hill in the opener. Meanwhile, the slumping Athletics have lost six out of their last seven, and they’ll go with JP Sears in tonight’s game, which is set for 9:40 p.m. ET.
Cease is coming off of a dominant outing against the Twins last time out and has really narrowed the gap in the Cy Young running, at least by Vegas’ standards. The 26-year-old is now just +105 on DraftKings to win the award, while Justin Verlander still has a slight edge at -135. Cease blanked Minnesota over 9.0 innings last time out, carrying a no-hitter up to the 8.2-inning mark, before allowing a knock to Luis Arraez. He still finished the game, collecting a CGSO and a win while striking out seven. Cease comes into tonight’s game at 13-6 with a 2.13 ERA (2nd), 1.08 WHIP (18th), and he’s struck out 197 batters (5th).
Sears has been great since coming over to the Athletics from the Yankees at this year’s trade deadline. The southpaw is 5-1 on the year with a 2.37 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 12 total appearances (seven starts). Most recently, Sears went 6.0 innings and allowed a pair of earned runs on six hits and a walk to the Orioles. It was a no-decision effort, which the A’s lost and moved to 2-3 in his starts with the team.
Cease should have no issue stifling this lowly Oakland lineup tonight. They rank dead last in team batting average (.216) and have the 29th-ranked OPS at .627. Considering the form that Cease is in and what’s at stake for the team, I expect him to deal tonight. As for Sears, he’s posted a 2.75 ERA at the Coliseum since joining his new team and is coming off of two straight quality starts. This White Sox lineup still seems to be sluggish at times, so I think Sears has an opportunity to silence them early at home. Let’s take a shot here with NRFI in the Bay.
Bet: White Sox at Athletics NRFI (-165 via DraftKings)
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