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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (6/6)

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I’m choosing to fade some of the most underperforming offenses in baseball in the NRFI market on Tuesday’s full slate of games, as the Mariners, Padres, and Brewers are all surprisingly bottom 10 offenses despite their preseason hype and offensive potential. Three out of the four pitchers will get the benefit of pitching against teams in their negative splits, and both ballparks have tended to benefit pitchers more than hitters. Neither game features a total higher than 8.5, and the Padres-Mariners game represents the lowest total on the board, so I like the chances for both of these to cash this evening.

2023 NRFI (18-17, -2.29 Units)

Tuesday’s Best MLB NRFI Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres

Joe Musgrove has been one of the unluckier pitchers in baseball this year, as his expected numbers and advanced statistics are much better than his 4.71 ERA would indicate. He has avoided hard contact, ranking in the top 20th percentile in both hard hit% and average exit velo, and he’s in the 88th percentile at generating swings on pitches outside of the strike zone. He ranks well above league average in xSLG and barrel%, and his xERA and xBA both register in the top 30th percentile. The Mariners have been extremely underwhelming offensively in 2023, a bottom 10 team in terms of HR and OBP, and a bottom 5 team in terms of BA, SLG, and OPS. They will also be in their worse offensive splits, as they hit RHP slightly worse than they hit LHP.

I’m going back to the well with Logan Gilbert, who had an out-of-character performance in his last start against the Yankees. Despite surrendering five ER in four innings, Gilbert’s numbers and metrics are still very good. His 0.98 WHIP is phenomenal, and his xERA of 3.03 puts him in the 84th percentile. His xBA and xSLG are both in the top third of the league, and he’s striking out nearly 30% of the batters he faces while walking fewer than 5%. The Padres have been nearly as bad offensively as the Mariners, as they also rank bottom 10 in BA, OBP, OPS, and SLG, and will be in their demonstrably worse hitting splits against the RHP Gilbert.

Pick: NRFI (-115)

Baltimore Orioles at Milwaukee Brewers

I like this matchup a lot for Brewers RHP Freddy Peralta, who will be taking on an Orioles lineup that surprisingly does not hit righties as well as it does lefties. Freddy has limited damage pretty well this year, with average exit velo and hard hit% that rank in the top third of the league and expected numbers that sit around league average. His fastball is very good, with a high spin rate and plenty of velo that leads to a swing and miss over 2/3 of the time. I also think that Peralta is due for some positive regression, as his xERA is lower than his actual ERA yet still remains higher than it’s been in his entire career. Baltimore has been a middling offensive team in 2023, and I think Peralta should have a clean opening frame against the O’s in their worse offensive splits.

Kyle Gibson has been a very solid pitcher for the Orioles this season, posting a 7-3 record with a 3.89 ERA. Though his Statcast metrics won’t make your jaw drop, he ranks in the top third of the MLB in barrel% and is right around league average in hard hit% and average exit velo. His recent performances suggest that he’s been trending in the right direction as well, as his xERA/xWOBA has been much better in the last 50 batters that he has faced. He’ll be facing off against a Brewers offense that has simply been one of the worst in the National League, ranking in the bottom 10 in BA, OBP, OPS, and SLG and ranking dead last in all of baseball in 2B. Additionally, American Family Field has been a bottom 10 stadium in terms of offensive park factors since 2021, ranking well below league average in 2B, 3B, and overall hits.

Pick: NRFI (+100)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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