MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (8/22)

by Austin MacMillan |
Aug 22, 2023

I normally bring two plays to the plate with my NRFI articles, but I couldn't help myself from adding another game on a day that I found plenty of NRFI opportunities (Yankees vs Nationals gets an honorable mention from me this evening, as well). All 3 of these games share the fact that the home team plays in a ballpark that is pitcher-friendly in terms of HR rate, and each one of these pitchers is considerably well above league average at avoiding hard contact, though that outcome is reached in a variety of different ways. Some of the guys are able to consistently pitch to soft contact, while the rest of the guys are swing-and-miss artists. The analysis per game is a little more concise due to the extra game, but all 3 games still stick out with factors that I most consider when making these plays.

Tuesday’s Best NRFI Bets

2023 NRFI (40-36, -3.21 Units)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins

Wade Miley is in the middle of a really solid age 36 season in the middle of the Brewers rotation, holding a career-best 3.05 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP. Miley has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball at avoiding hard contact this season, ranking in the 82^nd percentile in average exit velocity and 90^th percentile in hard hit%. His walk rate has been down compared to the rest of his career, coming in at 7.7% and good for the 55^th percentile. He's been in good form over his last 50 batters faced, with his xwOBA better than that of league average, and will be dealing to a Twins lineup that ranks in the bottom half of baseball in 2B, AVG, OBP, and OPS. Minnesota will also be in their far inferior hitting splits against the LHP Miley, which is another feather in his cap for this matchup.

Though the win/loss column might not necessarily reflect it, Bailey Ober is having a phenomenal season for the Twins. Ober ranks comfortably above league average in average exit velo, xERA, xBA, K%, and whiff%. His hard hit% sits in the 73^rd percentile, and both his walk rate and chase rate are above the 90^th percentile, among the best in the league. Ober will also have a splits advantage in this one, as the Brewers struggle to hit RHP more than they do LHP. That's bad news for Milwaukee, as their offense has been one of the most unproductive in the league as is, ranking bottom 10 in 2B, HR, AVG, OBP, OPS, and SLG. American Family Field has also been kind to pitchers over the years, ranking bottom-10 in overall offensive ballpark factors since 2021, via Statcast.

Bet: No Run First Inning (-105 @ BetMGM)

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins

Blake Snell has returned to form as one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, holding a 2.65 ERA that's backed by plenty of advanced metrics. Snell ranks in the 76^th percentile in xSLG, he ranks above the 80^th percentile in xBA, average exit velo, and hard hit%, and he ranks above the 90^th percentile in K% and whiff%. In other words, even if opponents are lucky enough to make contact against Snell in an at-bat, it's not getting hit hard anywhere. Snell will be facing off against a lineup that lacks a ton of pop, as the Marlins rank 20^th or worse in 2B, HR, OBP, OPS, and SLG.

While Jesus Luzardo hasn't matched the success that Snell has had this season, he's had a pretty impressive year of his own, becoming one of the top swing-and-miss lefties in the game. Luzardo's fastball is much better than most, averaging 97 MPH and coming in above the 90^th percentile. He's able to build off of his fastball with sliders and changeups that are also well better than that of the league average, which has led to him having a chase rate, K%, and whiff rate that all rank in the top quartile of the MLB. He's been able to limit his walks as well, with a walk rate that puts him in the 65^th percentile. Both sides will also get that advantage of pitching at Petco Park, which ranks 2^nd to last in all of baseball in offensive ballpark factors since 2021, via Statcast.

Bet: No Run First Inning (-115 @ Bet365)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers

Zac Gallen is having a dominant season for the Diamondbacks, evident by his 13-5 record with a 3.17 ERA and really spectacular 1.05 WHIP. In line with some of the aforementioned arms, Gallen has excelled at missing bats this year. He ranks comfortably above league average in whiff%, and sits above the 70^th percentile in both K% and chase rate. His walk rate sits at the lowest of his career at 5.1%, good for the 90^th percentile overall. He gets the benefit of pitching to the Rangers in their significantly worse hitting splits, as the average and power numbers both significantly drop for the Rangers’ offense against RHP.

We'll conclude today's article touching on Jon Gray of the Rangers, who is putting up a career-best 3.52 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP that is much better than his 9-year career average of 1.30. Gray has also done a tremendous job at avoiding barrels, ranking above the 85^th percentile in both barrel% and chase rate. Most of his other advanced metrics including hard hit%, xSLG, BB%, and whiff% are either right at league average or slightly above it, and his most recent 50 batters faced suggests that he's in the best form that he's been in all season. The Diamondbacks have not been the same team offensively since about the beginning of July, struggling to put up runs in the same capacity that they did at the beginning of the season. Lastly, though Chase Field does grade out above average in terms of overall offensive factors, the rate of home runs hit is actually the 7^th-lowest in baseball since 2021, which is obviously a huge factor in making or breaking an NRFI play.