MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (9/12)
The theme for today's highlighted pitchers is xERA, as the highest of the bunch sits at 3.30, which ranks in the 85th percentile.
A major contributor to those sterling xERAs are hard-hit balls and average exit velocities, which all of these pitchers excel at limiting. Though the Phillies have near-equal hitting splits against RHP and LHP, the other three offenses will be in their noticeably inferior hitting splits against the opposing pitchers. The offenses in that matchup are affording us some value in the market, with two of the best pitchers in the NL.
The other matchup between the Brewers and Marlins contains two teams that rank in the top 10 of NRFI success rate that I've been targeting in these spots all year long.
Here are my best NRFI bets for Tuesday, Sept. 12:
Tuesday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets
2023 NRFI (48-43, -3.25 Units)
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Pitching Matchup: Max Fried vs. Zack Wheeler
Max Fried gets the start for the Braves this evening at the tail end of what has been another phenomenal season, albeit a little truncated due to injury. Fried's 2.70 ERA is fantastic, but his xERA of 2.77 is even better, putting him in the 96th percentile of all pitchers. Batters are simply not squaring him up, as his hard hit%, barrel% and average exit velo all rank above the 90th percentile. On the off chance that batters make hard contact, his nearly 58% ground ball rate is also at the very top of the MLB in the 95th percentile.
He's also walking fewer than 6% of the batters he faces, which is good for the 88th percentile. While the Phillies lineup has some sluggers at the top of the order, I like Fried's ability to neutralize lefties like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper as a LHP.
One of my favorite pitchers in the NL, Zack Wheeler, will go for the Phillies in this matchup. The Braves obviously possess one of the most formidable offenses across the entire MLB, but if there's one pitcher that I feel confident in backing against that lineup, it might just be Wheeler. His 3.49 ERA is good but doesn't exactly speak to his underlying metrics. His 3.11 xERA falls just short of the 90th percentile, and his 1.05 WHIP is terrific. He mirrors Fried in that he also does not get hit hard, ranking above the 85th percentile in both barrel% and average exit velo. Plus, his walk rate of 4.6% actually bests that of Fried. He also outperforms Fried in the swing-and-miss department, with a whiff in the 68th percentile and a K% and chase rate that put him in the top quartile in the MLB.
Fading the Braves in any capacity is a risky proposition, but he will have the advantage of pitching to them away from their home field and in their inferior splits against RHP. Wheeler has been great in these spots all year long, and I like him to rise to the occasion and have a clean first inning in a huge start at home against the division rivals.
Bet: NRFI (+100 via Bet365)
Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Pitching Matchup: JT Chargois vs. Freddy Peralta
The Marlins will be rolling with an opener to start the game tonight, going with RHP JT Chargois against the Brewers. I have no problem backing openers in these spots, especially because it reflects upon the analytics department's assessment that it's likely a pretty good lane for Chargois to pitch. His advanced analytics admittedly do not have the large sample size that a regular SP will have and therefore do not qualify for percentile rankings. Still, his numbers are really good nonetheless.
His xERA of 3.13 is just slightly higher than that of the aforementioned Wheeler, and his xBA of 0.213 is terrific. The barrel%, average exit velo and hard hit% are all comfortably well above that of league average. Chargois’ ground ball rate of 57.3% would qualify for the top 10% in the league if the sample size were larger. I find his matchup to be extremely favorable tonight against a Brewers offense that ranks bottom 10 in 2B, HR, AVG, OPS and SLG. Milwaukee will also be in their worse hitting splits against the RHP Chargois.
Freddy Peralta is up there with Wheeler as one of my most frequently-backed pitchers in the NRFI market. This is partly because the Brewers’ offense has been abysmal but mostly because he has been really dependable in that spot. In line with today's featured pitchers, Peralta has an outstanding xERA of 3.30 (85th percentile) and a crazy low xBA of 0.209 (86th percentile). His average exit velo ranks in the top quartile of the league, and he's one of the best at getting batters to whiff, evident by his 92nd percentile whiff% and K%.
He'll be up against a Marlins lineup that is significantly worse against RHP and ranks 19th or worse in 2B, HR, OBP, OPS and SLG, despite being top 10 in AVG. This shows that they don't possess a lot of power. I'll back Peralta in most spots, regardless of the matchup. However, I feel like he has a decisive upper hand in this one and should be able to navigate through the first inning without much trouble.
Bet: NRFI (-115 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
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