Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (10/4)
With the Phillies’ win yesterday, there is really one two teams still truly playing for something, the Mets and the Braves. This should not have a massive impact on our NRFI bets, but it could lead to changes in lineups with some of the bigger stars being sat.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians – 6:10 ET
Cal Quantrill is starting for the Guardians today, and his 2022 season has been fantastic. Quantrill seems like the most recent incarnate of the magical estimator beater. A pitcher where all of the underlying skills do not line up with the success, but he manages to constantly succeed. It’s largely due to controlling the quality of contact, and despite a number of different attempts to explain it, we truly cannot find evidence that the skill exists. He faces the Royals today, who have a bottom 10 offense on the season. Quantrill does not walk many batters, which puts a lot of pressure on the Royals hitters to succeed in scoring in the first.
The Royals are starting left-hander Daniel Lynch today, and while the numbers don’t look great, there’s a lot to like with Lynch. He has good swing and miss stuff, but the issue is just far too many walks. The good news for him is that he faces a Guardians offense that struggles mightily against lefties. Cleveland has a wRC+ of 83 against lefties, mostly due to an overall lack of power. Additionally, the Guardians’ offense has a 7% walk rate when facing lefties which are tied for third lowest in baseball. This should allow Lynch to avoid some of his flaws and have a clean first.
Pick: NRFI -135
Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers – 7:40 ET
The Guardians are third to last in wRC+ against lefties, and tied with them are the Arizona Diamondbacks. Overall, the Diamondbacks have had a strange offensive season. For a stretch in August, they had one of the best offenses in the game, but in the last 30 days, they are once again near the bottom. Eric Lauer has been solid in 2022 with a sub-four ERA, but he does have a slightly elevated walk and homer rate. Lauer also excels the first time through the order with a wOBA allowed of 0.277 in these situations.
Zac Gallen has been the best pitcher in baseball since the All-Star Break, and it’s frankly not all that close. In 85 innings, he has an ERA of 1.27 while allowing a wOBA below .200. It is one of the most impressive stretches in recent memory for me. The Brewers’ offense has gone cold lately, and they have had a below-average offense in the last 30 days. With their playoff hopes now gone, this may be the day they send out their “B†lineup and give some of their best hitters the day off. With this in mind and the heater that Gallen has been on, it’s a perfect matchup for an NRFI bet.
Pick: NRFI -145
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