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Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (9/27)

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Yesterday was a rough day for my NRFI bets as both of my preferred plays failed to hit. On the flip side, a run was scored in the first in each of the four games played yesterday. With a full slate of games on today’s slate, let’s pick a few winners.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox – 7:10 ET

Yesterday one of our two picks was this Orioles and Red Sox game. Unfortunately, Connor Seabold immediately allowed a homer run to Cedric Mullins, causing our bet to miss. We go back to that same well today, with Michael Wacha taking the mound for the Red Sox. Despite slightly less favorable estimators, Wacha has been excellent this season and has allowed three earned runs or less in five straight starts. For many of the same reasons we were in on Seabold yesterday, we are returning to Wacha. Lucky for us, Wacha is a much more talented pitcher who has been limiting the long ball this season. Wacha has been excellent his first time through the order, allowing a 0.261 wOBA the first time.

For Baltimore, Kyle Bradish takes the mound. The full season numbers for Bradish still look rough, but that is disguising some interesting improvements and growth. Bradish has allowed no runs in three of his last six starts and allowed only one run in one of the other three. Bradish’s biggest change and improvement have been limiting home runs during this hot streak. This Red Sox lineup still has some pop in the top third, but Bradish is starting to look like an above-average arm with enough skill to keep them off the board in the first.

Pick: NRFI -120

Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs – 7:40 ET

This season for Marcus Stroman has gone extremely similar to the remainder of his career. He succeeds by limiting walks, generating a ton of groundballs, and limiting homers. This season, his HR/9 is actually the highest of his career, but at 1.15, it still is not excessive. Today he faces a powerful Phillies lineup with real home run pop in the upper third. However, he has been solid the first time through the order with a 0.283 wOBA allowed the first time he faces a hitter. The wind in Wrigley is blowing from left to right fairly powerfully, which should help to keep the ball in the yard.

Conversely, it is much easier to see why I like this bet. Zach Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball across the last two seasons and has an ERA under three thus far. On the season, the Cubs have a bottom-ten offense, but those numbers have gotten even worse in the last thirty days. Their wRC+ is 93, good for 24th best in all of baseball. Wheeler is even better the first time through an order as he has a wOBA allowed of 0.267. There is no one in this Cubs offense that scares me enough to bet against a shutout frame from Wheeler.

Pick: NRFI -120

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