MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (7/26)
Here are our favorite NRFI picks for today’s slate.
Wednesday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Jack Flaherty vs. Zac Gallen
The Diamondbacks have hit a dry spell. They have only managed to muster up three wins since the All-Star Break and only six wins all month.
In July, Arizona’s offense has been miserable. They have recorded 146 hits and 78 runs, both 8th lowest in all of baseball. Their advanced numbers aren’t much better; they rank in the bottom 10 in OBP, SLG, BABIP, wOBA, and wRC+.
The good news for Arizona is they try and get going against a struggling John Flaherty. Flaherty is 7-3 with a 4.39 ERA and has allowed 19 earned runs over his last six starts. Typically, this is the type of starting pitcher I would fade and take a shot on the YRFI, but I don’t have much confidence in the Snakes’ offense right now.
This is a perfect spot for Arizona to get going again, but it may take a few innings to do so, at least, I hope.
As for Zac Gallen, this is an excellent buy-low opportunity. To his standard, he had a few outings since the All-Star break, giving up six earned runs with three HRs over his last two starts. Both of those starts came on the road, and Gallen is back at home tonight.
Gallen has a home record of 9-0 with a 1.43 ERA. When pitching at home, opponents are hitting a measly .198 against Gallen. Among the other starting pitchers with at least 60 IP at home, Zac Gallen has allowed the fewest runs (12) in the MLB.
Bet: NRFI -105
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres
Johan Oviedo vs. Seth Lugo
FADE ALERT!
Johan Oviedo is one of those guys where you should try and fade in some way or another any time he is on the mound, especially on the road.
In 2023 Oviedo is 3-11 with a 4.77 ERA; on the road, his record is 1-6 with a 5.26 ERA. Over his last four road starts, he has allowed 14 earned runs and given up five home runs.
If that's not bad enough, the first inning is his worst. He has allowed 21 first-inning runs which is second most in the MLB while allowing a .298 batting average. Of the 13 home runs he has allowed, five have come in the first inning.
More bad news for the Pirates starter, The Padres have hit 22 first-inning home runs, tied for second most in all of baseball. Only the Braves and Dodgers have hit more.
Bet: YRFI -115
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