Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions (8/31)

Last night we swept the board in a peculiar way as the first inning was the only inning of each game that was scoreless. That’s why we’d rather be lucky than good sometimes when it comes to NRFIs. For tonight, we’re going to be laying the chalk with the best pitching on the slate, but before that, we’ll sweat out a pair of righties that are being undervalued. Let’s find out which arms we’re backing.

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Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians 6:10 pm ET

This is perhaps the most overlooked NRFI play on the slate, but a closer look reveals just how much value there is behind these two starters. Triston McKenzie will get us started in the top of the first. He has been electric this month as he’ll enter his sixth start of August with a 2.94 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP, and he’s two starts removed from a dominant 14-strikeout performance against the White Sox. While McKenzie has had issues settling in the first inning this season, his matchup tonight should aid him in posting a zero. Baltimore may be hanging around the playoff picture and have plenty of young talent in their lineup, but they are still notoriously slow starters. The Orioles enter tonight ranking just 27th in first-inning runs per game.

The bottom of the first will be in the hands of Jordan Lyles, and while that may not seem promising, he’s an excellent fit for how we are backing him tonight. First, Lyles is due for some positive regression as his FIP is 4.30, which is slightly lower than his season ERA of 4.45. Secondly, he has solid numbers in the first inning this season. Through 26 starts, Lyles has a 3.12 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Lastly, he also has a decent matchup in front of him as the Guardians rank 12th in first-inning runs per game but have gone cold of late as they have failed to score in the first in each of their last three ball games. So while the bottom of the first may get sweaty, Lyles gives us a better chance at zero than the oddsmakers think.

Pick: NRFI -107

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets 7:10 pm ET

The NRFI is always an option when Jacob deGrom is on the mound. When he’s been healthy, he’s been the best pitcher in baseball, and he also happens to be one of the most dominant first-inning pitchers we’ve ever seen. Not only has he not surrendered a run in the first inning through five starts this year, but he has only given up 11 earned runs in the first inning since 2018. While he seems to have a tough matchup in front of him, deGrom has handled the top of the Dodgers order quite well over the course of his career. Mookie Betts is just one for five against deGrom with two strikeouts, Trea Turner is hitting .250 lifetime with a 35.6 percent strikeout rate, and Freddie Freeman is hitting .238 with a 27 percent strikeout rate. So this half-inning will be very fun to watch.

Last night we saw the Mets put up a first-inning run against Andrew Heaney and should have had multiple, but they ran themselves out of the inning. Now the Mets are cemented in second place for first-inning runs per game at home. It will be Tyler Anderson’s job to cool them off, and his chances to do so are very good. Anderson has succeeded this season by generating a ton of soft contact. He ranks in the top five percent of all qualified pitchers in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. While he has a 27 percent strikeout rate in the first inning, the number that jumps out is his 0.73 WHIP. Anderson keeps guys off base, which counteracts what the Mets try to do in every first inning. They want to create traffic, cause stress and raise pitch counts, but Anderson is not the guy that will fall into their plan. This will be the strongest NRFI on the board, but we have a reasonable price on it.

Pick: NRFI -143

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