Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (9/21)
While we do have a large slate of games on the schedule today, this on paper looks like one of the hardest groups for me to choose from. Overall, I do not like many of the games on the board in terms of NRFI bets but lets dive into to the two games that jump out to me the most.
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Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles – 7:05 ET
One of the most interesting developments of the 2022 baseball season is the flipping of Camden Yards from one of the best parks for offense into an extremely pitcher friendly one. This has helped the Orioles pitchers a ton and is a big reason as to why the Orioles have even made a push at the playoffs. Today they send Jordan Lyles to the mound against the Detroit Tigers. Lyles has had an up and down season but today he gets to face the worst offense in baseball against RHP. Detroit has a wRC+ of 72 against righties, which will make it extremely difficult for them to score early today against Lyles. He should easily be able to make it through the first inning unscathed.
On the other end, Matt Manning takes the mound for the Tigers. Manning has actually had a really strong season despite missing a large chunk of time with inury. Manning’s skillset is not one I typically prefer to target as his strikeouts numbers are well below average. However, he limits walks and hard contact which had led to success for him thus far. The Orioles offense is better than expected but is still a middle of the pack offense against righties. The number is appealing enough that I think Manning can keep the success rolling and keep the Orioles off the board in the first.
Pick: NRFI -125
Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins – 6:40 ET
This is a matchup of two of the worst offenses in baseball. The Cubs have a wRC+ of 97 on the season and the Marlins are at 88, good for fifth worst in the league. Marcus Stroman is taking the ball for the Cubs today and he is having a fairly normal Stroman season. He has a slightly below average K-rate, he doesn’t walk too many hitters, and he generates a ton of groundballs. The Marlins are a light hitting bunch and do not scare me much in terms of power output. He is at his best the first time through the order and as a result should have no issues with keeping the Marlins off the board.
For the Marlins, Jesus Luzardo takes the mound. Luzardo has finally shown signs of hope from his lofty prospect status and at times he has looked like a frontline starter. He has been generating over a K an inning with a slight walk issue but overall he has been well above average as a starter. The Cubs offense is slightly below average against lefties and they do have the ninth highest K% against southpaws as well in 2022. In the last 30 days though, their wRC+ drops to 83 against lefties which is a bottom ten rate in baseball. This all sets up extremely well for Luzardo and his skillset. I typically do not like to bet elevated numbers like this one but on a slate that I do not love, this game is one of the few interesting options.
Pick: NRFI -160
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