MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Saturday (5/18)
Saturday brings along another full MLB slate of games as we dive into top No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks today. As you place your baseball bets today, check out these NRFI picks and predictions. For today's MLB bets, we have two NRFI bets to target before you enjoy the action. The two games we'll focus on are the Mets vs. Marlins and the Athletics vs. Royals. Below are my favorite NRFI plays for Saturday, May 18.
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Saturday's Best MLB No Runs First Innings Picks
(All odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Mets at Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers: Luis Severino vs. Braxton Garrett
Saturday afternoon brings along a National League East tilt between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins. The starting pitching matchup of Luis Severino vs. Braxton Garrett may not scream NRFI, but both hurlers' track records point us in that direction. Plus, we get a pair of shaky offenses to bet against early on.
Braxton Garrett made his season debut last weekend against the Phillies and immediately allowed a three-run homer in the first inning. After that, though, Garrett settled down and reeled off four scoreless innings before running into trouble later on. Still, it's encouraging to see the Marlins’ left-hander post a solid outing despite a rough first few batters.
It's also worth mentioning that the Phillies have one of the hottest offenses in the league, which is a tough spot for any pitcher to make his season debut. The matchup gets easier here with the Mets struggling against left-handed pitching lately. Over the past two weeks, the Mets have a .245 wOBA (29th), 59 wRC+ (29th), a .162 batting average (30th) and .523 OPS (30th) vs. southpaws. New York's offense also has some subpar first-inning numbers this year with a .277 wOBA, .214 BA, .609 OPS and 82 wRC+.
As for Garrett, he has proven first-inning success over recent seasons. The Miami lefty had a 24-7 NRFI record last year and a 13-4 NRFI mark in 2022. Yes, he just ran into early trouble last start, but we're banking on a bounceback effort this time around.
On the other side of the matchup, we can have more confidence in Mets starter Luis Severino holding the Miami offense in check to complete the NRFI. Severino boasts a stellar 7-1 NRFI record so far amid a resurgent season on the mound for New York. The veteran right-hander was just 11-7 to the NRFI last year in a down season, but he was much better in 2022 with a 17-4 NRFI record. It looks like we're getting that version of Severino back as he dominates the first innings.
Severino will take on a Marlins lineup with poor numbers against right-handed pitching this season. The offense has a .289 wOBA, 85 wRC+ and .648 OPS vs. righties as one of the league's worst in the split. Severino should get past the first inning unscathed en route to a lower-total matchup overall between the Mets and Marlins.
Bet: NRFI (-128)
Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers: Seth Lugo vs. Ross Stripling
Saturday evening's matchup between the Oakland Athletics and Kansas City Royals isn't exactly appointment viewing. Still, it's an under-the-radar spot to target the NRFI with two inconsistent offenses and a starting pitching showdown of Ross Stripling vs. Seth Lugo.
Seth Lugo is off to a surprisingly hot start this season for the Royals with a 1.66 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 6-1 record through nine outings. He's a perfect 9-0 to the NRFI as well with just a .161 batting average and .212 on-base percentage (OBS) allowed in the first inning. The Kansas City right-hander also posted a strong 21-5 NRFI record last year as a full-time starter with the Padres.
Though Lugo may see some negative regression down the line, he can still have early success in this matchup vs. Oakland. The A's have one of the worst first-inning offenses in the league with a .167 batting average (30th), .250 wOBA (28th), 65 wRC+ (26th) and 30.4% K rate (27th) in opening frames this year. Plus, over the past week, the Athletics are struggling to hit righties with a .271 wOBA and 78 wRC+.
As Lugo limits the Oakland offense, we can see Ross Stripling do the same against Kansas City hitters. Stripling's 4.98 ERA isn't too pretty this year, but that number is skewed a bit by two blowup starts against the Rangers. The Athletics' right-hander has a 2.86 ERA in his last six starts minus those two poor outings. Stripling is by no means an ace pitcher, but he's better than you'd think.
Stripling has just a 5-4 NRFI record this year, but his track record is worth mentioning. Last season, the veteran went 8-3 to the NRFI with the Giants and he posted a 19-5 NRFI record in 2022 with the Blue Jays.
Meanwhile, the Kansas City offense has been the league's worst against right-handers over the past week in several key stats (.224 wOBA, 38 wRC+, .176 BA, .505 OPS). The Royals also have some weak first-inning numbers during May with a .237 wOBA, a .170 batting average and 49 wRC+. In turn, they are 7-3 to the NRFI over the past 10 games. The Royals' 63% NRFI rate this season is also tied for the league's fifth-highest.
Bet: NRFI (-104)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday: