MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Tuesday (4/22)
Tuesday’s baseball slate is jam-packed. Among the many games today and tonight, two have enticing No Run First Inning (NRFI) selections.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Innings (NRFI) Picks
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
San Diego Padres (-105) at Detroit Tigers (-115) | O/U 7.5 (-105/-115)
Starting Pitchers: Nick Pivetta vs. Jack Flaherty
Nick Pivetta versus Jack Flaherty is the best pitching matchup today. Many of today’s matchups have at least one underwhelming or below-average starting pitcher. However, Nick Pivetta and Jack Flaherty are stellar hurlers.
Pivetta and Flaherty have a 1.57 ERA and 2.53 ERA, respectively, in 2025. All of Pivetta’s ERA estimators are excellent. While Flaherty’s 4.28 xERA is slightly alarming, his 3.58 xFIP and 3.47 SIERA are rock-solid or better.
Both veteran righties have also succeeded their first time through the order as starters recently and in their careers. According to FanGraphs, Flaherty has a 2.81 ERA and 3.37 xFIP in his first time through the order in 157 career starts. Last year, he had a 2.91 ERA and a 2.72 xFIP in his first time through the order. Those marks are 3.00 and 3.19 in 2025.
Conversely, in Pivetta’s 182 career starts, he’s had a 4.04 ERA and 3.84 xFIP in his first time through the order. However, he recorded a 3.59 ERA and 3.19 xFIP last year and has a 0.96 ERA and 3.81 xFIP this season.
Flaherty’s and Pivetta’s matchups in the first inning aren’t imposing, either. Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts are above-average hitters, but only Tatis has had a wRC+ above 115 against righties since 2023. Gavin Sheets and Tirso Ornelas shouldn’t scare Flaherty, despite Sheets’ hot start to this season.
Meanwhile, Detroit’s lineup is more punchless. Four of Detroit’s projected top-five hitters - if Kerry Carpenter is out again - have a 104 wRC+ or lower against righties since 2023 or debuting, and two have a 95 wRC+ or lower. Finally, according to Baseball-Reference, Flaherty and Pivetta haven’t allowed a run in the first inning this year.
Pick: NRFI (-125)
Colorado Rockies (+180) at Kansas City Royals (-220) | O/U 8.5 (+100/-120)
Starting Pitchers: Ryan Feltner vs. Kris Bubic
The Rockies have a lousy offense. They’re 26th in wRC+ (67) versus lefties and 30th in wRC+ (49) on the road this year. Their 2025 marks include the bottom of Colorado’s order, which isn’t impactful for an NRFI wager. Still, it’s not as if the top of their order is overflowing with talent.
Kris Bubic shouldn’t have any trouble tying them up. In a breakout campaign in his return to the rotation after a successful season in Kansas City’s bullpen, Bubic has a 1.88 ERA, 3.51 xERA, 3.42 xFIP and 3.44 SIERA in four starts this season. He hasn’t allowed a run in the first inning of his four starts this year, and he shouldn’t snap that streak tonight.
Ryan Feltner has a much shakier profile than Bubic. The 28-year-old righty’s 4.82 ERA in four starts this season is uninspiring, but his 4.09 xERA, 4.36 xFIP and 4.57 SIERA aren’t as putrid. Even in Feltner’s rough start to the year, he’s held two of his four opponents scoreless in the first inning.
A scoreless first inning has been a coin flip for Feltner this season. He has better odds than usual to spin a scoreless first frame tonight because the Royals have a lousy top of the order. Four of Kansas City’s projected top-five hitters have a 102 wRC+ or lower against righties since 2023, with two under 100. Bobby Witt’s 141 wRC+ against righties since 2023 is the only terrifying mark in the top of Kansas City’s order. Nevertheless, Witt’s presence isn’t enough to dissuade me from this NRFI wager.
Pick: NRFI (-1115)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.