MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Tuesday (4/29)
Tuesday’s baseball slate is jam-packed. Among the many games tonight, two have enticing No Run First Inning (NRFI) selections.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Innings (NRFI) Picks
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers (-110) at Houston Astros (-110) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)
Starting Pitchers: Reese Olson vs. Ryan Gusto
The game’s total for the Tigers at the Astros is a pitcher-friendly 7.5 runs. Ryan Gusto and Reese Olson aren’t world-beater pitchers. Still, both are pitching well this year.
Gusto began the year in Houston’s bullpen but has pitched well in their rotation. According to FanGraphs, in Gusto’s three starts spanning 14.2 innings this year, he has a 3.68 ERA, 3.36 xFIP, 3.25 SIERA, 3.3 BB%, 23.3 K%, and 1.23 WHIP. Gusto has also had excellent plate discipline and pitch-modeling numbers. So, his success as a starter doesn’t appear to be fluky.
Meanwhile, in Olson’s five starts, he’s had a 3.29 ERA, 4.00 xERA, 3.72 xFIP, 3.92 SIERA, 1.24 WHIP, 21.9 K%, and 49.3 GB%. Since last year, the right-handed starter has held 274 right-handed batters to a .256 wOBA. Olson’s dominance against righties should treat him well in the first inning.
Yordan Alvarez exited last night’s game early. Houston’s top-five hitters will likely all be righties if Alvarez can’t play tonight. Even if Alvarez plays, four of their projected top-five hitters will be righties.
Conversely, Olson’s matchup in the first inning is mixed. Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene are thorns in the side of righties. However, Gleyber Torres, Spencer Torkelson, and Zach McKinstry aren’t terrifying matchups.
The two starting pitchers have combined to throw five scoreless first innings while allowing at least one run in three starts. Gusto has tossed two scoreless innings in a row since allowing two runs to the Angels in his first start. Olson coughed up runs in the first inning in his first two starts. Yet, he’s spun scoreless first innings in three subsequent starts.
Pick: NRFI (-125)
San Francisco Giants (-125) at San Diego Padres (+105) | O/U 6.5 (-120/+100)
Starting Pitchers: Logan Webb vs. Nick Pivetta
Nick Pivetta versus Logan Webb is a battle of hurlers pitching like aces. Understandably, the betting odds for an NRFI are chalky. Gamblers should always line shop, but it’s even more critical on extra chalky lines. Still, these veteran righties should exchange zeros in the first inning.
In five starts this year, Pivetta has a 1.20 ERA, 2.78 xERA, 3.38 xFIP, 3.23 SIERA, and 0.77 WHIP. He’s piled up a 27.0 K% with a stingy 6.3 BB%. Pivetta is thriving in his first year with the Friars.
Webb is also cruising this season. In six starts in 2025, he’s had a 1.98 ERA, 2.92 xERA, 2.11 xFIP, 2.50 SIERA, and 1.10 WHIP. Webb has also combined a juicy 30.8 K%, a rock-solid 7.0 BB%, and a robust 55.7 GB%.
According to Baseball Reference, in five starts this year, Pivetta has allowed only three hits, one walk, and zero runs with six strikeouts in the first inning this season. Webb has also done well in the first inning. In six starts this season, Webb has allowed two runs on five hits, three walks, and eight strikeouts in the first inning. San Francisco’s ace has allowed a run in the first inning in just two of his six starts, and Pivetta obviously hasn’t allowed a run in the first in any of his five starts. Even though the line is chalky, I’ll gladly eat the chalk for an NRFI with these studs toeing the slab.
Pick: NRFI (-140)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.