MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Tuesday (4/30)
We've gotten back on a nice roll in the No Runs First Inning (NRFI) market after a tough stretch involving two-out home runs resulting in bad beats.
I'm going back to the well with two of my favorite pitchers on this evening's full slate of games and fading a couple of offenses that have underperformed this year compared to years prior. Both games feature a total of 7.5, which is among the lowest on the slate this Tuesday.
So let's stay hot and get a couple more tickets to the window.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning Picks
2024 NRFI (10-6; +1.09 Units)
Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers: Cole Ragans vs. Jose Berrios
Jose Berrios is off to his best start in what has been an incredibly consistent and successful career as a starting pitcher so far. Currently sitting around 10th in AL Cy Young Award odds, Berrios has a phenomenal ERA of just 1.23, with a WHIP of 1.04. While his xERA is substantially higher (it would be nearly impossible not to be), it's still the second-lowest of his previous five seasons and pretty consistent with his career average. Berrios has a ground ball rate of 46.5% that ranks well above the league average, and the run value on all of his pitch types ranks among the elite in the league.
While the Royals have certainly improved offensively from years prior, they still rank in the bottom half of baseball in SLG and OPS and bottom-10 in AVG and OBP. The key for Berrios in the opening frame is Bobby Witt Jr. If he gets the 23-year-old out, the chances of this play hitting increase exponentially.
Cole Ragans will take the opposing mound for the Royals. He is a hard-throwing lefty in just his third season who should become a household name before too long. Ragans has been one of my favorite pitchers to back in the early going. He is slightly underrated, with some underlying metrics that outperform what his actual numbers say. His xERA of 3.65 is lower than his actual ERA, and his swing-and-miss numbers are terrific. Ragans grades out above the 70th percentile in both chase% and whiff%, with a chase rate that sits in the 80th percentile. His walk rate is sub-8%, and his barrel rate is sub-6%, both of which are comfortably north of the 60th percentile.
While the Blue Jays’ lineup might suggest they are an offensive juggernaut, their actual numbers have been incredibly disappointing. Toronto ranks in the bottom half of baseball in OBP and ranks 20th or worse in AVG, OPS, SLG and HR. Also, something interesting has been going on at the Rogers Center this year. While Toronto's home park used to be considered pretty hitter-friendly, there has been a significant dip in HR rate this year, as the park ranks 21st in the metric.
Bet: NRFI (-122 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Alexander vs. Freddy Peralta
If you've kept up with my articles this season, it should be no surprise that I'm featuring another Brewers game in the NRFI market, especially with Freddy Peralta on the bump. I've covered him extensively but have no problem breaking him down again, as he has continued to be an excellent pitcher at the top of the rotation for Milwaukee. Peralta’s 3.18 ERA and 0.99 WHIP are both fantastic, and his swing-and-miss stuff exceeds even that of the aforementioned Ragans. His whiff% and K% are both north of 33%, which is good for the 91st and 93rd percentiles, respectively. He's also been able to consistently avoid hard contact, with an xBA of 0.230 and an average exit velocity that sits just shy of the 80th percentile. He'll be taking on a Rays lineup that has really regressed from seasons prior, ranking bottom-10 in baseball in OBP, OPS, SLG and HR. I love Peralta's matchup tonight, and he should roll through this opening frame.
Meanwhile, the Rays will employ the opener strategy and start a soft-throwing lefty in Tyler Alexander. He has been on the receiving end of some pretty unfortunate luck this season, with an xERA of 3.76, which is nearly a full run lower than his actual ERA. His xBA is also actually better than his counterpart at 0.229. As a soft thrower, Alexander doesn't miss a ton of bats, but he does a decent job of avoiding hard contact (62nd percentile average exit velo), and he ranks in the top third of all pitchers in walk rate.
The Brewers have admittedly improved on the offensive side potentially as much as any team in the MLB this year on paper. Still, looking through their game log, you can see that a lot of that production was carried by some big run totals in early-season performances. They have eclipsed the five-run total just twice since April 14, with many sub-three-run performances during that stretch. American Family Field also grades out below league average in terms of overall park factors since 2022, especially in the XBH department, which helps pitchers on both sides in this matchup. I foresee another low-scoring game between these two teams that combined to score one run last night, and I think we get a clean first inning.
Bet: NRFI (-135 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: