MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Tuesday (4/7)
Rotations are rolling over, which means we have a plethora of aces toeing the rubber in the MLB on Tuesday. There's no better time to bet on the No Runs First Inning (NRFI) prop when something like this occurs. Let's dive into my top four NRFI bets for Tuesday, April 7th.
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Tuesday's Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Kansas City Royals (-102) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-118) | O/U 6.5 (-125/+104)
Tuesday's MLB action gets started with a matinee showdown in the American League Central between the Royals (5-5) and the Guardians (6-5). Noah Cameron gets the nod for Kansas City, while Cleveland counters with Gavin Williams. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET from Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH.
Gavin Williams has looked sharp in two starts this season, posting a 2.25 ERA (31st) and a 1.08 WHIP over 12.0 innings. He's coming off of a 7.0-inning shutout performance against the Dodgers last time out. Williams will face a modest Royals offense, and their key hitters of Maikel Garcia (3-for-17), Bobby Witt Jr. (3-for-21), and Vinnie Pasquantino (1-for-9) are a combined 7-for-47 (.149) against him.
As for Noah Cameron (1.80 ERA), he has owned the Guardians in the past, limiting their current roster to a slash line of .235/.257/.382 over 34 at-bats. Now, Jose Ramirez has had his number, going 4-for-5 (.800) against him. However, Steven Kwan (1-for-6) has struggled. If Cameron is able to work around Ramirez, and when also factoring in that the wind will be blowing in from dead center at 9.2 MPH, I think he'll have a good chance to keep a clean first frame. Cleveland has seen its last nine NRFI prop bets cash, so they've clearly been slow starters this season.
Pick: NRFI (-165)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-163) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (+135) | O/U 7.5 (-118/-102)
We have an early-season World Series rematch on the schedule this week, and it'll be the Blue Jays (4-6) who are hoping to bounce back after getting slaughtered 14-2 by the reigning champion Dodgers (8-2) last night. This game features a pitching matchup between Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Kevin Gausman, and it gets underway at 7:07 p.m. ET from the Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON.
There is obviously a ton of offensive firepower at the top of these lineups, but considering the pitching matchup and the price, I do think it's worth playing the NRFI. The Dodgers are 6-4 (60%) to the NRFI this year, while the Blue Jays are 5-5 (50%).
Kevin Gausman (0.75 ERA) has found success against Los Angeles throughout his career, limiting their current roster to a slash line of .227/.313/.513 over 119 at-bats. This includes the big guns of Shohei Ohtani (2-for-17), Kyle Tucker (4-for-12), Freddie Freeman (2-for-14), and Teoscar Hernandez (3-for-22), who are a combined 11-for-65 (.169) against him.
As for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, he has held the Blue Jays in check. They're slashing just .196/.212/.294 against him across a 51-at-bat sample size. The right-hander has looked serviceable in two quality starts (12.0 IP) this season, logging a 3.00 ERA (46th) and a 0.83 WHIP (13th). Toronto is just 24th in wOBA (.269) over the last seven days, and this is not a great candidate to have a breakout offensive performance against.
Pick: NRFI (-125)
Detroit Tigers (-175) vs. Minnesota Twins (+144) | O/U 6.5 (-124/+103)
The Tigers (4-6) are off to a slow start this season, but they'll try to turn things around when they hand the ball to Tarik Skubal against the Twins (4-6) on Tuesday. Taj Bradley gets the nod for the Twins. First pitch is slated for 7:40 p.m. ET from Target Field in Minneapolis, MN.
Taj Bradley is having a fantastic start to the campaign, entering with a 0.87 ERA (16th) in two starts. He just blanked the Royals over 6.0 innings, allowing only six base runners in the winning effort. Bradley doesn't have any meaningful head-to-head data against the Tigers, but considering his elite form, I think he's primed for a decent start to this game.
On the other hand, we're getting the two-time reigning Cy Young award winner in Tarik Skubal. This is why we have to pay the -185 vig with this play. The southpaw is already out to an electric start in 2025-26, owning a 0.69 ERA (7th) and a 0.89 WHIP (9th). The Twins' big hitters of Byron Buxton (3-for-18), Trevor Larnach (4-for-11), and Luke Keaschall (1-for-3) are a mediocre 8-for-32 (.250) against Skubal. Minnesota is a league-leading 9-1 (90%) to the NRFI to start the year. Look for that trend to continue with these two solid starters going.
Pick: NRFI (-185)
Seattle Mariners (-122) vs. Texas Rangers (+102) | O/U 7.5 (-102/-118)
Let's wrap up our NRFI card in this American League West clash between the Mariners (4-7) and the Rangers (5-5). George Kirby heads to the hill for the M's, while the hosts turn to Nathan Eovaldi. This game is set for 8:05 p.m. ET from Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX.
Nathan Eovaldi hasn't looked great out of the gate this year, posting an inflated 11.42 ERA and 2.19 WHIP. However, I think this could be a nice bounceback spot for the veteran right-hander. Well, at least in the first inning. He'll take on Brendan Donovan (0-for-2), Cal Raleigh (4-for-14), Julio Rodriguez (7-for-18), and Josh Naylor (0-for-8), who are a combined 11-for-44 (.250) against him. If Eovaldi can work around Rodriguez and avoid a big fly against the slumping Raleigh, then I think we'll be looking good.
As for the bottom half of the frame, we'll be leaning on George Kirby and his 3.75 ERA (62nd). The right-hander has performed well against the Rangers in the past, holding their current roster to a slash line of .222/.252/.283 over 99 at-bats. Corey Seager (1-for-15) and Wyatt Langford (1-for-11) have struggled mightily against Kirby. Let's take the NRFI in the Lone Star State tonight.
Pick: NRFI (-140)