MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Tuesday (4/8)
Tuesday’s baseball slate is jam-packed. Among the many games today and tonight, two have enticing No Run First Inning (NRFI) selections. While the odds listed below are from Caesars Sportsbook, the NRFI lines can move substantially. So, bettors should shop around for the best odds at all available regulated sportsbooks in their respective state or country.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Innings (NRFI) Picks
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
Atlanta Braves (-120) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (+100) | O/U 7.0 (-115/-105)
Starting Pitchers: Chris Sale vs. Zack Wheeler
Chris Sale, the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner, and Zack Wheeler are legitimate aces. Sale has had the unenviable task of facing the Padres and Dodgers in his first two starts this year. Thus, he has a 5.40 ERA after a pair of challenging matchups. Still, the southpaw’s underlying data was excellent.
According to FanGraphs, Sale has a 2.32 xERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.3% walk rate, 27.9% strikeout rate, 14.6% SwStr%, 28.7% CSW%, 105 stuff+, 112 location+ and 109 pitching+. Bettors shouldn’t be concerned by his 5.40 ERA.
Meanwhile, in two starts spanning 13 innings this season, Wheeler has a 1.39 ERA, 2.54 xERA, 1.95 xFIP, 0.54 WHIP, 4.5% walk rate and a 40.9% strikeout rate. He’s bullied the Nationals and Rockies, shoving them in a locker in his two starts this season.
Sale and Wheeler have the goods. The Phillies and Braves have legitimate boppers in their lineups. Still, Sale and Wheeler should be unfazed. According to Baseball Savant, Atlanta’s active players have a .245 wOBA and .257 xwOBA in 278 plate appearances against Wheeler in their career. Philadelphia’s active players have a .275 wOBA and .297 xwOBA in a smaller sample of 86 plate appearances in their career versus Sale.
Both pitchers also have a track record of pitching well to open games. Since 2023, Sale has a 2.48 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his first time through the order as a starting pitcher. Additionally, per Baseball-Reference, Sale had a 3.15 ERA and allowed eight runs (seven earned) in the first inning in 20 starts in 2023 and a 3.41 ERA with 11 runs allowed in the first inning in 29 starts in 2024.
Meanwhile, Wheeler has been more dominant. Since 2020, he’s had a 1.05 ERA, 1.29 ERA, 1.67 ERA, 2.27 ERA, 1.88 ERA and 0.00 ERA in his first time through the order as a starting pitcher. Moreover, his ERA in the first inning in that span was 1.93. Wheeler has allowed only 29 earned runs in the first inning in 135 starts since 2020. He’s been unreal. As a result, I’m happy to eat the chalk on the NRFI line for this National League East battle.
Pick: NRFI (-150)
Kansas City Royals (-130) vs. Minnesota Twins (+110) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110)
Starting Pitchers: Cole Ragans vs. Pablo Lopez
Cole Ragans and Pablo Lopez have a knack for carving up hitters their first times through the order. Ragans has held 495 batters to a 2.34 ERA, 3.53 xFIP and 1.07 WHIP with an 8.3% walk rate and a 28.3% strikeout rate his first time through the order as a starting pitcher in his career. While those numbers are sparkling, Ragans’ ERA his first time through the order as a starting pitcher slides to a jaw-dropping 1.84 after eliminating his rough debut in 2022.
Lopez isn’t as dominant but has a longer track record. He has a 3.04 ERA, 3.57 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP, 5.7% walk rate and a 25.1% strikeout rate against 1,432 batters his first time through the order. Since 2023, Lopez has had a 3.60 ERA his first time through the order, which isn’t as good as his career mark, but it’s still solid.
Sadly, while Ragans’s success his first time through the order mirrors his work in the first inning, Lopez’s doesn’t. In 55 starts, Ragans has had a 2.45 ERA and allowed just 15 runs in the first inning in his career. Conversely, Lopez has a slightly alarming 4.64 ERA in the first inning in 160 career starts. Since 2023, he’s had a 4.64 ERA in the first inning in 66 starts.
I’d be leery of suggesting an NRFI in a game with Lopez toeing the slab if he were facing a more imposing opponent. Instead, Bobby Witt Jr. (142 wRC+ versus righties since 2023) is the only stud hitter in the top five in Kansas City’s lineup. Moreover, three of Kansas City’s top five hitters have had a 104 wRC+ or lower against righties since 2023. Finally, Lopez has excellent career numbers against Kansas City’s hitters. Therefore, I believe Lopez can keep the Royals off the scoreboard in the first inning, and I have no doubt about Ragans’s ability to blank the Twins in the first inning.
Pick: NRFI (-130)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.