MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Tuesday (5/6)
Tuesday’s baseball slate is jam-packed. Among the many games tonight, two have enticing No Run First Inning (NRFI) selections.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Innings (NRFI) Picks
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
Philadelphia Phillies (-125) at Tampa Bay Rays (+105) | O/U 8.0 (+100/-120)
Starting Pitchers: Zack Wheeler vs. Drew Rasmussen
Zack Wheeler is one of MLB’s best starting pitchers, and Drew Rasmussen is no slouch, either. Philadelphia’s ace has been stellar, if slightly unlucky, this year. Per FanGraphs, his 3.48 ERA in seven starts this season is higher than his 2.48 xERA, 2.66 xFIP and 2.53 SIERA.
Wheeler is a terror for hitters out of the gate. From 2020 through 2025, Wheeler has had a 1.05 ERA, 1.29 ERA, 1.67 ERA, 2.27 ERA, 1.88 ERA and 2.60 ERA in his first time through the order as a starting pitcher. Moreover, per Baseball Reference, Wheeler has allowed only one hit, zero walks and zero runs in the first inning in seven starts this season.
Conversely, Rasmussen opened the year with four scoreless first innings before coughing up runs in the first inning in back-to-back starts. Still, four scoreless first innings in six starts this season is nothing to sneeze at.
Like Wheeler, Rasmussen is outstanding out of the gate. In 56 starts since 2021, Rasmussen has had a 2.15 ERA, 3.03 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, 5.1 BB% and 26.1 K% in his first time through the order as a starting pitcher.
Neither Wheeler nor Rasmussen has an easy assignment at the top of the opposing lineup. Nevertheless, they’re outstanding pitchers. Finally, the line for an NRFI at Caesars Sportsbook is a steal compared to -155 at DraftKings Sportsbook, further bolstering my confidence in this pick.
Pick: NRFI (-130)
Pittsburgh Pirates (-130) at St. Louis Cardinals (+110) | O/U 7.0 (-120/+100)
Starting Pitchers: Paul Skenes vs. Matthew Liberatore
Like Wheeler, Paul Skenes has fired seven scoreless first innings in seven starts in 2025. Skenes has coughed up only four hits and zero walks with five strikeouts in the first inning this year.
Unsurprisingly, the sophomore stud has pitched well in his first time through the order. In 30 career starts in the Majors, Skenes has a 1.04 ERA, 2.10 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, 4.5 BB% and 35.6 K% in his first time through the order. Skenes is a monster.
Matthew Liberatore is a heck of a B-side in this matchup. He’s breaking out with the underlying data to validate it. In six starts spanning 34 innings this season, Liberatore has a 3.44 ERA, 2.94 xERA, 2.91 xFIP, 3.20 SIERA and 0.97 WHIP.
The lefty has done well in his first crack at opposing lineups this year. In six starts in 2025, Liberatore has yielded only a 3.46 ERA, 3.33 xFIP and 1.15 WHIP with a 3.7 BB% and 22.2 K% in his first time through the order this year.
He’s done an outstanding job of starting games with a zero on the scoreboard against him. Liberatore has spun a scoreless first inning in five of six starts this year. Unfortunately, the only game he allowed a run in the first inning was against the Pirates. Nevertheless, his matchup is pretty good.
Pittsburgh’s top two projected hitters are Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds. Since 2023, they’ve had an 87 wRC+ and 94 wRC+ against lefties, respectively. Two others have had a wRC+ of 113 or lower against lefties since 2023. Joey Bart (136 wRC+ versus lefties since 2023) is the most fearsome hitter Liberatore should see in Pittsburgh’s top-five batters. Thus, I expect this NL Central matchup to produce a scoreless first inning.
Pick: NRFI (-135)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.