MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks: Cubs vs. Padres (Monday)
Monday doesn't offer the most appetizing slate in terms of NRFI options, with nearly half of the league on an off day and bottom of the rotation pitchers set to make starts for the teams who are in action. As such, I only have one NRFI play for tonight, in the late-night matchup between the Cubs and Padres. Both starting pitchers are underrated in my opinion, and both excel at throwing strikes and missing bats. We get the added bonus of a pitcher-friendly park, and a pretty favorable price due to how productive the Cubs offense has been in the early going.
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(All bets are one unit unless otherwise stated)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
Randy Vasquez is slated to get the start for the Padres, an underrated right-hander who has been very reliable in the middle of the Padres' rotation over the previous few seasons. Vasquez's overall pitching run value sits in the 90th percentile with a fastball run value in the 93rd percentile and a breaking ball run value thank ranks just outside of the top third of all pitchers. His swing and miss stuff has taken a monster leap from last season, as he now holds a 70th percentile chase rate of 32.5%, a 68th percentile whiff rate of 28.6%, and a 72nd percentile strikeout rate of 26.3%. He's also been able to avoid the free pass, with a 71st percentile walk rate of just 6.0%.
The Cubs will counter with the southpaw Matthew Boyd, whose 5.79 ERA really isn't indicative of the pitcher he has been this season. His numbers are largely inflated from a horrible first start where he allowed 6 ER in less than four innings against the Nationals. He has rebounded nicely though, allowing just 3 ER over his previous two starts combined, including a 10 strikeout performance against the Angels. Boyd has a breaking ball run value that ranks among the top third of pitchers and an offspeed run value that puts him in the top quartile of the league, respectively. He also makes Vasquez's swing and miss stuff look unimpressive, as he grades out in the 97th percentile or better in terms of whiff rate, chase rate, and strikeout rate. He has excellent command of the strike zone as well, with an 88th percentile walk rate of 5.4%.
While that Cubs offense is certainly nothing to scoff at, ranking near the top of the league in nearly all statistical categories, the Padres offense has been underwhelming at best. San Diego ranks in the bottom-10 in baseball in all of the following categories: HR, BB, AVG, OPS, SLG, and OBP. Petco Park isn't exactly a hitters paradise either, grading out 22nd in terms of overall offensive ballpark factors since 2024. If Vasquez can pull his weight in the top of the 1st against a tough Cubs offense, I love Boyd to finish off the NRFI in the bottom half.
Pick: NRFI (-115 at BetRivers)