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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/7)

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One of the quickest MLB bets to make is whether a run will be scored in the first inning or not. Here are our best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks for Friday’s slate.

Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning Bets

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds NRFI (-136 FanDuel)

The Reds will be sending their presumptive ace of the future, Hunter Greene, out to the mound to start on Friday afternoon. The 23-year-old former #2 overall pick doesn’t have a ton of priors to rely on at the major league level, but what we do know is that his stuff is absolutely electric.

Greene can throw it as hard as anybody, ranking in the 99th percentile in fastball velocity and 81st in spin rate. This helped him achieve an 88th percentile whiff rate and a 91st percentile K%, only giving up an xBA of .220. Greene pitched very well in his Opening Day start before he lost control of the strike zone in the fifth inning, which could just be a result of inexperience going deeper in ball games at the MLB level. I like him to get out to another good start against a Phillies lineup that has really been struggling, averaging just 2.2 runs per game over their last five, only scoring a run in the first inning in one of those games.

Meanwhile, the Phillies will be starting Zack Wheeler, who will be starting this season on the heels of an outstanding 2022 season. Wheeler ranked well above league average in all advanced metrics that are pertinent to this betting market; he does not walk batters (83rd percentile BB%), he avoids hard contact (75th percentile xSLG, 76th percentile hard hit %, 94th percentile average exit velo), and he induces the swing and miss (74th percentile K%, 83rd percentile chase rate). I trust Wheeler, one of the more underrated veteran pitchers in the entire league, to navigate the top of the Reds’ lineup without much difficulty.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners NRFI (-130 FanDuel)

I’m relying less on seasons prior for this pick, as neither starting pitcher’s advanced metrics will jump off the page at you. Instead, I’m leaning on the fact that we’ve actually already seen this Civale vs. Gilbert pitching matchup this year, and it was a good one. Civale tossed seven innings of no-run ball, only surrendering two hits and one walk.

Gilbert did his part as well, pitching six innings, with his only blemish being a Josh Naylor HR in the fourth inning. He fanned seven batters while only giving up one walk and four hits. Much like Hunter Greene from the Reds, Gilbert is a former first-round draft pick with all the potential in the world. He’s only 25 years old, with great fastball velo (96-97 MPH average) and extension on his pitches (99th percentile). I like Gilbert to build off of his stellar first outing against a team he’s already pitched against.

Civale is a little bit of a different pitcher, who generates a very high spin rate on his fastball and curveball (95th and 94th percentile, respectively) to generate swings and misses. He ranks above league average in chase rate, K%, and expected ERA. He and Gilbert are both proficient at not walking batters, both issuing walks at a sub-5% rate. Much like Gilbert, I expect Civale to have success getting through this lineup that he’s already familiar with. I think the weather will help this play out as well, as it’s going to be a chilly day this afternoon in Cleveland.

Also take a look at our other best bets for Friday:


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