MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Friday (7/3)
Welcome to another beautiful day as we've reached the Fourth of July weekend with some beautiful baseball weather. Let's bet on some MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks. It's a popular betting market where gamblers wager on whether the first inning of an MLB game will end with zero runs scored by either team. Pretty simple.
NRFI bets are the best because they're quick - sometimes you'll know the outcome within minutes. NRFI bets can provide an edge over other markets if you’ve done your research. I'm here to help provide that edge. As always, shop around for the best odds and be on the lookout for lineup announcements, which can significantly impact the outcome.
We went a perfect 3-0 last time out, hitting a +265 Rays first-inning Moneyline bet. Let's do it again and dive into some games on this July 3rd slate.
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Friday's Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Last Time: 3-0 | Season: 28-12
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
Starting Pitchers: Anthony Kay vs. Gavin Williams
We open in Cleveland, where the divisional foes battle as they jockey for first in the American League Central. We start by noting that both of these lineups are missing their most dangerous hitter.
The Guardians are without Jose Ramirez, who underwent surgery on a fractured hamate in mid-June and isn’t due back until later this month. The White Sox, meanwhile, are still waiting on Munetaka Murakami, whose 20 homers and .938 OPS have been on ice for five weeks due to a hamstring strain.
Gavin Williams gets the nod for Cleveland. He has a 2.74 home ERA and gets a Cleveland-friendly matchup against a Chicago lineup that has to manufacture offense without its big bat.
On the other side, Anthony Kay’s 4.50 ERA won’t scare anyone, but he only needs three outs against a Guardians offense that ranks 25th in the Majors in wRC+ and 24th in first-inning runs. Add in pitcher-friendly Progressive Field, and the early zeros are the play.
Play: NRFI (+102 at BetRivers)
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Starting Pitchers: Christian Scott vs. Grant Holmes
Our second NRFI (spoilers) takes us to Truist Park, where two quietly effective right-handers square off.
Christian Scott has been excellent of late with a 2.49 ERA in his last five starts while holding opponents to a .237 batting average in the first inning this year. He draws a Braves offense that has gone ice cold, stumbling through a 2-8 stretch entering the weekend while ranking in the bottom half of the league in contact rate.
Grant Holmes counters with a 3.96 ERA and .233 opponents’ batting average, playing with the home crowd behind him. The Mets’ lineup beyond Juan Soto has been wildly inconsistent. Bo Bichette carries a .296 on-base percentage (OBP), and Holmes has held them to a combined 0-for-6 lifetime.
This is a bet where I'm banking more on recent offensive play and taking the value that prices them for the entire season.
Play: NRFI (-118 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Starting Pitchers: Michael King vs. Shohei Ohtani
We close out West with the best pitcher on the entire slate and the National League MVP favorite. Shohei Ohtani takes the ball for the Dodgers at 8-2 with a 1.58 ERA through 13 starts. He’s working on extra rest after Los Angeles pushed his start back from Wednesday.
Ohtani faces a Padres offense in complete free fall. San Diego owns the worst team batting average in baseball at .225, hits just .213 against starting pitchers and has dropped six straight, including getting outscored 35-12 in a sweep at Wrigley Field. Ohtani has not allowed a single run in the opening frame in any of his 13 starts. I'm not as worried about San Diego scoring early.
Michael King is the sweat here. He’s allowed three or more runs in six of his last seven starts. But King has shown he can quiet this exact lineup early with just one first-inning run allowed over his 17 starts. We only need him to navigate the top of the order once.
With Ohtani’s half of the inning about as close to an auto-zero as this market offers, the math still works. Just don’t chase the price if it climbs past -130.
Play: NRFI (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)