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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Monday (4/3)

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After a fantastic first weekend of the MLB season, we have a full slate for this Monday. However, unlike Opening Day where the entire slate was full of aces, today is a mixed bag of arms. Let’s dive into the slate and find our favorite bets.

Season record: 2-0

Monday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

San Francisco Giants at Chicago White Sox, 3:10 PM ET

Today is Chicago’s home opener and, coming off a strong showing in Houston, they will send Michael Kopech to the mound. Kopech had a solid 2022 result-wise, but there was definitely something missing. He could not generate strikeouts at an above-average rate and walked too many hitters for the contact profile. His numbers in 2022 showed some success the first time through the order, with a sub .300 wOBA allowed, but more importantly, he showed success against left-handed hitters. He had a 28% K% against left-handed hitters and the Giants stack the top of their order with lefties when facing a right-handed pitcher like Kopech.

The Giants are sending Anthony DeSclafani to the mound. After some solid seasons, he was brutal in 2022. The issue, however, was entirely driven by HRs. His K/9 and BB/9 are both similar to his career numbers. Pretty much everyone hit him hard last season, and there is not much to glean from trying to decipher the 2022 numbers. He is a solid pitcher when healthy and when everything is working right. There are also some suggestions that he may piggyback this game with Sean Manaea, which could allow DeSclafani’s stuff to play up a bit in shorter stints.

Bet: No Runs First Inning (NRFI) (-125)

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees, 7:05 PM ET

This play is almost entirely about the line feeling lower than it should for the involved pitchers. Nestor Cortes takes the mound for the Yankees in all of his glory. Cortes has been one of the best stories in all of baseball the last two seasons, posting back-to-back sub-3 ERA seasons. He relies on deception to dominate and that is especially true early in games. He had a 0.222 wOBA allowed the first time through the order. The issue is that the top half of the Phillies’ order is one of the league’s best. Cortes is excellent against left-handed hitters so he should be able to limit Kyle Schwarber at the very least, making it a little easier for him to get through the inning.

Taijuan Walker will be starting for the Phillies in the team’s first look at their free-agent signing. Walker was a big beneficiary of the dejuiced baseball last season, as he posted an HR/9 below 1 for the first time in the last three seasons. He had a wOBA allowed of 0.261 the first time through the order, and saw that number steadily rise each time through. He has to face a daunting Yankee lineup, however thus far in 2023, the Yankees have been relying on the long ball to score. If Walker can keep up the skills he had last season, that should allow him to keep a clean inning.

Bet: No Runs First Inning (NRFI) (-120)

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Monday:

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