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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Monday (5/29)

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Happy Memorial Day! We have 11  games to choose from on today’s slate. We also have the return of Mike Soroka, which is a fantastic sight to see. Let’s dive into today’s games.

Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI)

Season to Date: 16-15

Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros

JP France takes the mound for the Astros today against the Twins. Despite a decent wRC+ over the last two weeks (106), the Twins have struggled mightily to score runs. They have the 24th most runs in the league across that span. France has been solid in his few outings to begin his MLB career, but HRs have been an issue for him. The rest of the skills are solid, which should allow him time to correct the HR issue, but a lot of the problem was also driven by one bad game. With the Twins’ struggles, he looks like a solid bet to keep a clean first frame.

On the other side of this game, Sonny Gray is taking the mound. Gray has been absolutely ridiculous in 2023 with a double-digit K/9, and he has yet to allow a homer. While he is unlikely to keep that ridiculous pace up, he looks like a low-three ERA arm which in this run environment is a CY Young contender. The Astros’ offense is elite, but he has allowed a 0.270 wOBA in his career the first time through the order, and his skills have been good enough that he should be able to keep a clean first.

Pick: -130

Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago Cubs

Marcus Stroman has been excellent in 2023, with a sub-three ERA buoyed by his excellent GB%. As he always does, Stroman is keeping the ball in the yard and has been able to limit BABIP en route to fantastic numbers. He has allowed a .280 wOBA the first time through the order in his career. He is unfortunately tasked with facing one of the best offenses in all of baseball, but the right-hander has the talent and skillset to throw a clean first inning.

Taj Bradley gets the ball on the other side, and his reason has been a bit up and down. Bradley was solid in his first go around and struggled a bit in the two starts since returning from the minors, but there is one thing that he does extremely well, and that is limit free passes. He has a 1.48 BB/9 which is sparkling, and when we are looking at NRFI bets, we typically like to find the pitchers that make the other team earn it. This season the Cubs’ offense has been top-ten by wRC+ with a 107 number; however, a big part of that appears to be due to their patience and willingness to take a walk, as they are one of three teams with a double-digit BB%. Bradley should be able to limit one of their biggest strengths as a team.

Pick: -125

Also make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:


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