MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Monday (6/22)
I've got a two-pack of MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks for Monday’s abbreviated slate, starting off with a couple of underrated righties versus underperforming offenses in an inter-division American League showdown.
I'm also targeting an American League Central rivalry with some hampered offenses because of injuries to critical middle-of-the-order bats. Let's keep things rolling and get our betting tickets to the window to start the week off on a high note.
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays
Starting Pitchers: Michael Wacha vs. Drew Rasmussen
Drew Rasmussen has been incredible for the Rays this season, rocking a 2.59 ERA with a stellar 0.88 WHIP. His fastball grades out among the very best in the Majors, with a run value sitting in the 99th percentile. His 87th-percentile xERA of 2.95 indicates that his numbers aren't flukey either and that he's pretty much pitched to expectations.
Rasmussen is elite at avoiding hard contact, ranking above the 85th percentile in terms of average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and groundball rate. He generates plenty of swing and misses as well, with a 71st percentile chase rate and an 83rd percentile strikeout rate. Lastly, he absolutely does not allow free baserunners, with a 4.2% walk rate in the 98th percentile.
Michael Wacha gets the start for the Royals, as effective as ever in his age-34 season. Although he doesn't throw all that hard, he still has a fastball that grades out in the 77th percentile in terms of run value.
Wacha doesn't quite have the same swing-and-miss profile as Rasmussen, but he does rank comfortably above league average in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, with a 72nd percentile barrel rate.
While both teams hit for average at a decent clip, neither lineup features an overwhelming amount of power. Both teams rank 20th or worse in slugging rate and in the bottom half of baseball in OPS, despite ranking in the top half of the league in on-base percentage (OBP).
Tampa Bay ranks dead-last in the Majors in home runs, and Kansas City ranks sixth-worst. I see this game as a low-scoring grinder all the way through, and I like both sides to have a clean first inning.
Pick: NRFI (-136)
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
Starting Pitchers: Gavin Williams vs. Anthony Kay
The White Sox will send southpaw Anthony Kay to the mound tonight, who, full disclosure, I don't have that many great things to say about. This play hinges on a sputtering Guardians offense that will be without perennial MVP candidate Jose Ramirez.
The Guardians rank in the bottom five in batting average, slugging rate and OPS, with the league's 20th-ranked OBP. They also have the sixth-fewest runs scored and the seventh-fewest home runs.
The one redeeming quality about Kay is that he ranks among the top third of all pitchers in chase rate, which is a nice quality to have against a Guardians team that doesn't strike out a whole ton.
The Guardians will counter with Gavin Williams, who has been a favorite of mine this season. Williams ranks in the top five in the American League in strikeouts (103) and rocks a solid 3.83 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP.
As you might expect, Williams’ swing-and-miss stuff is exceptional. He has a top-quartile chase rate, paired with a whiff rate and strikeout rate each above the 84th percentile. Williams does have a tendency to get hit hard, which is reflected in his metrics, but his 71st-percentile groundball rate of 47% helps counteract that.
Similar to the Guardians, the White Sox are also without a critical middle-of-the-order bat in Munetaka Murakami, which obviously increases Williams’ chances of getting through the first inning unscathed. As long as Kay gets through the top half of the inning, I think Williams cruises through the bottom half to get this NRFI home.
Pick: NRFI (-142)