MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Monday (7/27)
The list of top-tier starting pitchers isn't exactly extensive on today’s slate of games, but I've still got two MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks to bring to the table this evening.
The first game will feature a top-tier pitcher in Max Fried, with a banged-up Yankees team traveling to the south side of Chicago. And the second game will feature two quality right-handers against bottom-half offenses in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. We got hot right before the All-Star break, so let's see if we can't get another streak going starting today.
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox
Starting Pitchers: Max Fried vs. Noah Schultz
Max Fried makes his second start since returning from injury, after looking as good as ever in his return in a five-inning outing, where he allowed one run and struck out seven against the Pirates.
Fried has been incredible this season, with an overall pitching run value in the 95th percentile, a 94th percentile fastball run value and an offspeed and breaking run value that both grade out in the top quartile. His 97th percentile xERA of 2.52 actually suggests that for as good as he's been, he's actually been a little bit unlucky.
Fried grades out above the 90th percentile in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and xBA, and his barrel rate is immaculate in the 100th percentile. His 50.8% groundball rate is also insanely high in the 86th percentile. Even if he does get squared up, he's able to keep the ball on the ground more often than not.
The White Sox will counter with southpaw Noah Schultz, who has really not had a good season. This play is much more about an injury-ravaged Yankees lineup that exceptionally struggles against left-handed pitching.
Cody Bellinger is the latest Yankee to join the injured list (IL), which set up the Yankees to have Amed Rosario hitting in the three-hole, a right-handed hitting Jasson Dominguez hitting fourth and Anthony Volpe hitting fifth. Max Schuemann is hitting seventh and replacing Bellinger in the outfield - not exactly a murderer's row.
Their biggest power threat, Ben Rice, has noticeably worse splits against left-handed pitching, and other sources of power in Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trent Grisham and Austin Wells are all left-handed as well. I trust Fried to have a clean first inning against anyone, and despite Schultz's struggles, the Yankees in their current form are just not in a good spot offensively.
Rate Field also sneakily ranks in the bottom half of baseball in terms of both overall offensive ballpark factor and home run factor, which only adds to my conviction for this play.
Pick: NRFI (-113)
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Bradish vs. Keider Montero
Keider Montero gets the ball for the Tigers tonight, in the midst of a pretty solid season in the middle of their rotation. He holds a 3.14 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP, and grades out among the best in the game in terms of run value on his pitches.
Montero’s offspeed run value sits in the 94th percentile with a fastball run value in the 97th percentile, good for an overall pitching run value in the 98th percentile. He doesn't allow free base runners, evident by his 92nd percentile 5.3% walk rate. His xBA grades out comfortably above league average, and his xERA of 3.39 sits in the 73rd percentile.
Montero will be up against an Orioles lineup that has really struggled to get it going all season long, as they rank in the bottom half of baseball in terms of average, slugging rate and OPS.
Kyle Bradish has had a solid season as part of an Orioles rotation that has been in dire need of consistency. Similar to Montero, Bradish has a fastball that grades exceptionally well, sitting in the 93rd percentile in run value and in the top quartile in overall pitching run value.
Bradish grades out right around league average in most advanced metrics, with an xERA, xBA, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity that are all comfortably above league average. Bradish also does an incredible job of keeping the ball out of the air, with an 84th percentile groundball rate of 50%.
The Tigers’ offense is incredibly similar to the Orioles’ offense, as they also rank in the bottom half of baseball in terms of average, slugging rate, on-base percentage (OBP) and OPS. Add in the fact that Comerica Park ranks in the bottom half of the league in terms of overall offensive ballpark factors, and I think we enter the second inning knotted up 0-0.
Pick: NRFI (-125)