MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Monday (8/10)
My MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks this evening have a little bit of an unknown component due to the sample sizes and experience levels of the pitchers involved. One pitcher will be making just his third start of the season, two are top-10 prospects for their respective clubs and one hurler will be making just his second start with his new team since being dealt at the trade deadline.
While that certainly offers some volatility, I also think that it offers a slight price discount, and I'm happy to hop on both of these MLB NRFI plays in two National League West ballparks that also happen to be among the most pitcher-friendly venues in the Majors.
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers: Logan Henderson vs. Casey Mize
Casey Mize makes his second start as a Padre this evening, looking to bounce back after what was a dreadful debut. That outing aside, Mize has been very good this season. His breaking ball and fastball grade out above the 70th and 80th percentiles, respectively, for an overall pitching run value that sits in the top quartile of all pitchers. His xERA of 3.34 grades out just shy of the 80th percentile and is actually slightly better than his actual ERA, indicating that he's been a bit unlucky, if anything, this season.
While his other underlying metrics won't necessarily blow you away, Mize grades out right around or slightly above league average in nearly every category, and he has excellent command of the strike zone with a minuscule 6.1% walk rate. He actually had one start against the Brewers as a member of the Tigers this season - seven strikeouts, three hits and one earned run allowed over six innings. As always, while the Brewers get on base at a high clip, they do not hit for much power, ranking in the bottom half of the Majors in slugging rate and they have the fewest home runs.
Logan Henderson will make his 11th start of the season for the Brewers. His 2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP are both phenomenal, but the fact that his 96th percentile xERA is even lower at 2.62 is insane. Henderson pairs that with a 90th percentile xBA of just .201, and strikeout and walk rates which both also grade out above the 90th percentile. He also has an average exit velocity and whiff rate that each grade out above the 70th percentile, and a groundball rate that ranks among the top third of all pitchers.
This Padres offense doesn't really hit for power and doesn't get on base nearly as frequently as the Brewers. San Diego ranks 20th or worse in all of the following categories:
- Batting average
- On-base percentage (OBP)
- OPS
- Slugging Rate
- Home runs
- Runs
Add in the fact that Petco Park ranks 22nd overall in offensive ballpark factors since 2024, and this game has NRFI written all over it.
Pick: NRFI (-137 @ BetRivers)
Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers: Hayden Wesneski vs. Blade Tidwell
I'm backing another prospect tonight in Blade Tidwell. While he will be making just his second start of the season, he has appeared in nine games and has had scoreless outings in six of them. He holds a solid 3.18 ERA, which is backed by a 3.30 xERA, and he grades out well above league average in terms of average exit velocity, barrel rate and walk rate.
While his sample size is too small to qualify for percentile rankings among MLB pitchers, all of those categories would grade out in the top quartile if he were eligible. The top of the first inning all comes down to how he handles Yordan Alvarez. If we get through Alvarez without letting him do any damage, I think Tidwell escapes the first inning unscathed.
The Astros will counter with Hayden Wesneski, who also doesn't have much of a sample size to draw from as he will be making just his third start of the season. You actually have to go back to his debut season in 2024 to have anything meaningful to draw from, where he posted a 3.86 ERA with a 79th percentile average exit velocity and a chase rate and hard-hit rate that each ranked among the top third of all pitchers.
Funny enough, Wesneski’s ERA this season is also exactly 3.86, and his chase rate and barrel rate have each been off the charts. He should have a pretty favorable matchup tonight against a Giants offense that draws the fewest walks in the sport and has the third-worst OBP, while also ranking in the bottom half of the Majors in OPS and home runs. Again, if we factor in the offensive ballpark factors, Oracle Park ranks 26th in overall park factors and is second-worst in terms of home run factor, making this game another great candidate for a scoreless first inning.
Pick: NRFI (-108 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)