MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Monday (8/17)
I only have one pick tonight, since a third of the league has the day off. Of the teams that will be in action, a doubleheader provides some pitching uncertainty, and there are still some teams that have yet to announce a starter for tonight's slate. Of the teams that have announced starting pitchers, several bottom-of-the-rotation arms are featured. As such, only one game this evening has a total below eight runs, so just be careful if you're looking to spray the board with MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks tonight. My play is a fun one, at least, featuring rivals who share the same city but play in different leagues.
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers: Luis Castillo vs. Shota Imanaga
Shota Imanaga will get the ball for the Cubs in the series opener this evening. He is having a really good season trying to stabilize an injury-riddled Cubs pitching rotation. Imanaga's chase rate has been off the charts this season, sitting in the 94th percentile and paired with a whiff rate that ranks in the top quartile.
Imanaga's hard-hit rate ranks in the 70th percentile, and he's comfortably above league average in terms of strikeout rate, average exit velocity and xERA. He also has remarkable control of the strike zone, ranking in the 95th percentile with a minuscule 5.2% walk rate.
The White Sox will counter with trade deadline acquisition Luis Castillo, whose season-long numbers are pretty poor, but he is coming off of his best performance of the season and looking to revitalize his season as the White Sox make their playoff push.
Castillo tossed a gem his last time out, throwing a season-high seven innings for a season-high 10 strikeouts, allowing only one hit and zero earned runs. On the whole, Castillo's chase rate still grades out among the top third of all pitchers, and he also has good control of the strike zone with a walk rate that sits in the 71st percentile. Castillo channels his most recent performance to stay in good form and have a clean opening frame this evening.
Offensively, it's difficult to poke holes in either side. They’ve both been really productive for a majority of the season, though both squads do rank in the bottom seven in terms of strikeouts this season.
The wind tonight looks to be a non-factor at Wrigley Field. It actually looks like it will slightly blow the ball in from right field, which should help contribute to this NRFI. Wrigley Field has actually been one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks in recent history, grading out 27th in terms of overall offensive ballpark factors since 2024.
Pick: NRFI (-117)