MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Monday (8/3)
My MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks tonight are made up entirely of teams in the West, with three of the teams featured from the National League West. While the starting pitchers for these two contests might not necessarily be household names, the offenses sit in the bottom half of the league.
Each game takes place in pitcher-friendly ballparks, at least in terms of home run factor, which helps prevent one swing from being the deciding factor. Let's get the week off to a good start and get both of these MLB NRFI picks to the window.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(Odds courtesy of BetRivers)
San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers: Logan Webb vs. Cal Quantrill
Cal Quantrill looks set to get the start for the Rangers this evening, and although he's had some rough seasons in previous years, he's been pretty serviceable as a starting pitcher in 2026. He currently has his best ERA (3.84) since 2022 and a WHIP (1.24) that is by far his best mark over his previous three seasons.
Quantrill is not going to miss a ton of bats, but he has done a solid job avoiding hard contact, with an average exit velocity that ranks among the top third of all pitchers and a hard-hit rate that ranks just outside the top quartile.
Although the Giants do hit for average at a relatively high clip, they rank in the bottom five in on-base percentage (OBP), sit in the bottom half of the league in home runs and rank in the bottom 10 in runs. Quantrill isn't a pitcher I'm necessarily looking to back on a regular basis, but I do like the matchup for him, and I think he gets through the first inning unscathed tonight.
The Giants will counter with Logan Webb, who has all the underlying metrics to suggest that he's been as dominant as ever this season despite the fact that the results haven't quite been there. His overall pitching run value grades out in the 96th percentile, with a fastball run value at the top of the Bigs in the 98th percentile.
Webb grades out above the 80th percentile in chase rate, barrel rate and walk rate, and his 53.4% groundball rate has him in the 92nd percentile. The Rangers have been incredibly middling offensively this season, ranking in the bottom half of the Majors in OPS, home runs, walks and strikeouts, while also scoring the sixth-fewest runs.
Add in the fact that Globe Life Field ranks second-worst in overall offensive ballpark factors and 21st in home run factor since 2024, and I like this game to stay scoreless after the first inning.
Pick: NRFI (-115)
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers: Michael King vs. Brandon Pfaadt
Brandon Pfaadt seems to be having the best year of his young career with the Diamondbacks, currently posting a career-low ERA of 4.00, his lowest by a meaningful margin. Both his fastball and breaking pitches grade out near the top third in the Majors, good for an overall pitching run value above league average.
While Pfaadt ranks around league average in most advanced statistics, his groundball rate of nearly 50% has him above the 80th percentile. He also does a great job avoiding the free pass, with a 6.8% walk rate, which has him among the top quartile of pitchers.
Pfaadt goes up against a Padres lineup that has underperformed all season long, ranking 20th or worse in OBP, OPS, batting average, slugging rate and total runs scored.
Michael King is slated to get the start for the Padres. He has really flourished in his role as a starter since coming over from the Yankees. King's metrics suggest that he has some of the nastiest stuff in the game, as his breaking and offspeed pitches both rank above the 90th percentile in run value, which add up to an overall pitching run value in the 90th percentile.
While his swing-and-miss metrics are a little down, King holds a 60th percentile groundball rate, an average exit velocity that puts him among the top quartile of pitchers and an 84th percentile hard-hit rate.
The Diamondbacks have also been sneakily underwhelming offensively this season, ranking in the bottom half of the league in walks, batting average and OBP, while ranking in the bottom 10 in OPS and slugging rate. They have also hit the second-fewest home runs in the Majors.
Combined with the fact that Chase Field grades out 22nd overall in home run factor since 2024, I like the NRFI side tonight.
Pick: NRFI (-115)