MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Monday (9/14)
It’s pretty crazy to say, but the marathon that is the MLB regular season is drawing to a close, with just two full weeks of games remaining. There’s still plenty to play for in the American League, with both the Central and West divisions up for grabs, with four teams within four games of the final Wild Card spot. The National League has been sorted out for the most part, though there are a few teams that can make a bid for that final National League Wild Card spot. Today features an abbreviated MLB slate with some pretty undesirable starting pitching options, so I only have one play on this Monday, where I’m targeting a low-scoring affair featuring one of the teams desperately vying for that last American League playoff spot. Check out our top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks below.
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(Odds courtesy of BetRivers)
Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers: Troy Melton vs. Jose Soriano
The Blue Jays surprised many at the trade deadline, adding right-handed flamethrower Jose Soriano from the Angels when they also sold off some pieces like Kevin Gausman. While he hasn’t quite maintained the same Cy Young-level caliber of performance that he began this season with, Soriano has still proven to be a top-of-the-rotation arm and has fared well in a Blue Jays uniform, allowing more than three earned runs in just one start with his new team.
Soriano’s stuff has never been any concern, as his breaking and offspeed stuff both grade out above the 90th percentile in terms of run value, combining for an overall pitching run value which falls just shy of the 90th percentile. His chase rate and whiff rate are both exceptional, grading out above the 70th percentile, and he’s one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in the game with an average fastball approaching 97 miles per hour (MPH).
Soriano’s hard-hit metrics are middling, but he mitigates that with an exceedingly high groundball rate (53.7%), which grades out among the top-10th percentile of all pitchers. This will be his first outing this season against a Tigers offense that has really underperformed expectations, ranking in the bottom half in batting average, slugging rate and total runs scored.
They also have a bottom-10 on-base percentage (OBP), OPS and strikeout rate, while recording the second-fewest stolen bases in all of baseball. I don’t like this Tigers lineup at all right now, and Soriano should breeze through them in the opening frame.
The Tigers will counter with second-year righty Troy Melton, who has been really good in this starting rotation. Melton is a hard thrower as well, averaging over 96 MPH on a fastball that grades out in the 87th percentile in terms of run value, with an overall pitching run value in the top quartile of all pitchers.
Melton has a top-three xERA, and falls just shy of the 70th percentile in terms of barrel rate. He comes in above the 70th percentile in chase rate, with a top-quartile walk rate. He’ll be up against a Blue Jays lineup that has been even worse than Detroit’s, as Toronto ranks in the bottom six in OBP, OPS, slugging rate and home runs.
They have scored the second-fewest runs in the Majors and have also drawn the league’s second-fewest walks. With a total currently below eight, this game is projected to be low-scoring, and that starts with a clean opening frame from both starting pitchers against two lackluster offenses.
Pick: NRFI (-132 @ BetRivers)