Navigate

MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks, Predictions & Odds (4/14)

by |

The NRFI market has been a little more difficult to tackle in the early season due to the rule changes that have resulted in more scoring across the league. Ground balls that we've been used to seeing as outs have turned into base hits, and it's easier than it has ever been to get runners into scoring position with steals. For that reason, I've shifted my handicap to weigh more heavily toward teams that have struggled to score runs rather than starting pitcher matchups.

  • 2023 NRFI Season Record: 4-3, -0.09 Units

Friday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Athletics vs. Mets Under 0.5 Runs (-128 @ FanDuel)

The A's have scored seven or more runs in their previous three games against a very weak Orioles pitching staff, yet they still rank tied for 25th in baseball in runs scored per game. They rank below league average in doubles and home runs hit, and if it weren't for a two-homer day from Brent Rooker yesterday, they would not have a player with over two HR hit on the year. Their offense will be going up against Kodai Senga, who has been absolutely phenomenal in his first two starts in the MLB, going 2-0 with a stellar 1.59 ERA. Senga has been terrific at missing barrels, with his barrel %, whiff %, and K % all ranking in the top-25th percentile in the league.

For all the firepower that fills the Mets lineup, they have left a lot to be desired so far, actually tied for 25th in runs scored with the A's. Despite Pete Alonso's six home runs, the Mets are tied for 22nd in the league in home runs hit, with no other player having more than two. James Kaprielian should be able to neutralize Alonso's power, as the slugger is only batting 0.115 against righties with a 0.346 SLG (.409 and 1.000 against lefties, respectively). Kaprielian hasn't necessarily yet lived up to the hype that his No. 16 overall draft pick might indicate, but he did rank above league average in hard hit % and exit velo allowed last season. Oakland has one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the MLB, allowing below league average in runs and HR historically. I think these offenses continue to struggle early, and we will have a scoreless opening frame.

Marlins vs Diamondbacks Under 0.5 Runs (-111 @ FanDuel)

The Marlins bring the league's second-least productive offense into this matchup, averaging a shade over just three runs per game. Their OPS ranks 22nd in MLB at .705, and they are striking out at the third-highest rate of any team. Though Madison Bumgarner hasn't been the same pitcher that dominated the latter half of the 2010s, he still has a ton of experience, and his hard hit % and exit velo allowed have been his best advanced metrics so far this 2023 season. The D-Backs are also second in the MLB in defensive runs saved so far, so Bumgarner will have plenty of help behind him.

While the Diamondbacks have been a middling team in terms of runs scored, their lineup does not feature a ton of pop. They rank 26th in the bigs in home runs hit, and their batters are only reaching base safely at the 22nd-best rate. They will be up against the lefty Trevor Rogers of the Marlins, whose analytics suggest that he is a much better pitcher than his 0-2, 6.00 ERA would indicate. He ranks above the 60th percentile xBA, whiff %, and hard hit %, and he ranks in the top 12th percentile in both average exit velo and chase rate. LoanDepot Park also skews toward a more pitcher-friendly environment, with runs and home runs coming in below a neutral league average. I like both of these southpaws to have success early against lineups that don't provide a ton of firepower on either side.

Check out our other best bets for Friday:

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App